Product Roadmap Highlights:

Attribution Data

 

In the past few weeks you may have seen mention of our Product Roadmap.   To summarize briefly, we are deciding what new products and services to offer, and we’d love your input.  This week we thought we’d give a spotlight to one project: Incorporate Attribution Data into the ShareBuilder Pricing Algorithm (details below).

If you like what you’ve read and/or if you’d like to hear about other ideas, simply click on the link below, (you can vote by leaving your email and marking Critical or Nice-To-Have). If you’ve already voted, first thank you, however, give a peek at this idea as it is a late edition. Thanks in advance for making ShareBuilder better!

Incorporate Attribution Data into the ShareBuilder Pricing Algorithm

Summary

Expand ShareBuilder’s pricing and consulting services to help stations understand and leverage attribution data.

What is Attribution data?

Attribution data seeks to answer the strategic questions like “How effective was an advertiser’s recent advertising campaign?” or more tactically, “Did it increase the advertiser’s website visit, or foot traffic, or purchases?”

Example Attribution Vendors

Why is this an opportunity for broadcasters?

Presently, media pricing is heavily influenced by ratings and impressions. If advertisers begin to shift over to purchase behavior of consumers (rather than viewership or listenership) as the preferred currentcy, then pricing may need to begin to reflect this shift.

Proposed Solution:

Incorporate attribution data into ShareBuilders pricing algorithm.

Build in alerts that highlight pockets of inventory that may have been previously under-priced or over-looked.

ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -4.0%
Q2 -2.3%
Q3 -1.2%
Q4 -1.1%
July Aug Sept Q3
Local 1.6% -5.0% 1.5% -0.6%
Natl -2.1% -5.9% 1.0% -2.3%
L+N 0.5% -5.3% 1.3% -1.2%
Oct Nov Dec Q4
Local 7.0% -3.0% -5.0% 0.5%
Natl 4.0% -9.0% -13.0% -5.0%
L+N 6.1% -4.7% -7.4% -1.1%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q3 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q3 Local pace jumped two-tenths of a point thanks to a 0.8-point jump for September this week, driven by last-minute dollars and a continued slowdown in 2018 billing due to political displacement.
  • Just about every category grew.
Forecast Updates
We’ll continue to see 2018 September slow down, in addition to more 2019 money, so we’ll likely grow more than the couple tenths it takes to get to our previous forecast of +1%. We’ll take it to +1.5%, though the data says it might be as high at +2%. Nice late rally! The quarter ends up at -0.6% with that increase.

Q3 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Like Local, National grew nicely this week, with September’s 1.2-point growth pushing the quarter’s pace up 0.4 points, and once more nearly every category pushed up.

Forecast Updates

We think National will continue to improve in the final days of the quarter, more so than our prior +0.5% forecast would suggest, so we’ll push it to +1%, and it too might even be better than that. This takes the quarter’s estimate up two-tenths to -2.3%.

Q3 Local + National

The combined forecast moves up 0.2 points to -1.2% for the quarter.

 

Q4 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q4 had a very up and down week, ultimately adding 0.5 pace points. If Q3’s pattern is any indication, we should see much more substantial growth here in this last week before the start of the quarter, and that growth can’t come soon enough.

  • October added a nice 2.3 points, but November stayed flat, and December actually lost 1.6 points. This is all likely due to lateness, and November and December will certainly grow in the next couple of weeks.
Forecast Updates
  • You might recall that we’ve been assuming a similar late pattern in Q4 to what we saw in Q3. If those patterns hold exactly, Q4 Local could be as strong at +4%. That would be wonderful, but that’s pretty strong considering the -0.6% finish for Q3, even against significant political crowdout last Q4. Using Q3’s finishes as a guide, it’s likely instead that our prior forecasts for October and November still apply, but that December could be 1.5 points stronger. So we’ll go here today:
    • +7% for October
    • -3% for November
    • -5% for December
    • +0.5% for the quarter

Q4 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National continues to grow steadily, and we should see huge leaps this week now that ITN is going in. However, we’re still waiting on some major business – like Dodge/Jeep/Chrysler, GM, and Chevy, so more growth should come.

  • The quarter added just 0.8 points in pace this week, with October added just a tenth of a point, November four-tenths, but December adding 2.7.
  • More categories trended downward than upward this week, though Fox, ABC, the Midwest and Northeast, and markets 21-65 and 101+ were up.
Forecast Updates
  • Using the same Q3 comparisons to estimate Q4’s lateness, the best-case scenario is that Q4 finishes -0.7%. That’s pretty strong given the Q3 finals, but there is certainly upside, and we’re going to start moving in that direction::
    • October up from +2% to 4%
    • November up from -11% to -9%
    • December up from -15% to -13%
    • Quarter up 2.2 points to -5%

Q4 Local + National

So, things are looking up for Q4. We’re still waiting on a ton of money, especially on the National side, which will of course give us more certainty on where things will end up. But until then, we’re going to start moving our numbers up, taking our combined forecast up 0.6 points to -1.1% for the quarter. We hope to continue moving up from here.

Where should I be by 10/1?

On the first day of Q2 and Q3, our overall station group had 71-72% of their total Core quarterly revenue booked. Furthermore, in the 5 days before the start of each quarter, 10-12 points were written. So, if you’re sitting at around 60% or better of your Q4 forecast on the books, you might be on track to get to where you want to go.

Of course, some stations break earlier or later; your own patterns matter here. Look back at where you were on 3/25 for Q2 and on 6/25 for Q3, and that might give you some feel for where Q4 will end up.

What’s The Story, Inventory?

Q4 is just days away, but as we mentioned in our forecasts, we know that we’re still waiting for a lot of business to come down this week.  Inventory looks more open across all dayparts compared to a month ago, but we know lateness is the driving factor. If we were to pull this data again once more stations have ITN and auto in, we’d likely see less open areas.

TV Pacing Charts Q3

      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.6% -5.0% 1.2% -0.9%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.6% -1.6% 1.5% 1.3%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.7% -6.6% 0.8% -1.8%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.1% -4.0% 3.4% 0.1%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.6% -2.5% 4.2% 2.4%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.3% -8.7% -4.7% -6.0%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.4% -10.7% -3.7% -6.0%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.6% -4.1% 1.8% -0.1%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.6% -6.1% 4.1% 0.7%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.0% -5.1% 0.5% -1.8%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.0% 0.6% 3.1% 3.4%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.4% -6.9% -2.7% -3.8%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.5% -7.3% 0.6% -2.8%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.3% -6.0% 0.2% -1.3%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.8% -4.0% 1.0% 0.5%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -5.0% -9.3% -1.3% -5.2%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.3% -3.4% 3.2% -0.2%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.0% -16.3% -5.1% -23.3%
      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.1% -5.9% -0.4% -2.9%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.2% -5.7% 1.9% -0.8%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.4% -7.8% -6.9% -6.3%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.2% -7.1% 3.2% -2.3%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.0% 1.3% 8.4% 4.8%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.1% -6.5% -1.6% -4.2%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -14.0% -11.0% -11.7% -12.1%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.7% -6.4% -3.7% -5.0%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.3% -12.3% -0.8% -4.8%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.2% -7.1% -2.2% -5.7%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.6% -0.9% 2.5% 1.7%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.1% -4.7% -1.6% -2.3%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.9% -3.7% 0.0% -3.3%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.2% -7.7% -8.2% -7.4%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.2% -0.8% 4.7% 1.5%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -12.4% -14.5% -1.6% -9.7%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.3% -6.5% 6.1% 1.6%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.0% 2.6% 1.2% 3.3%
      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -6.2% -4.0% -3.3%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.9% -1.6% -4.3% -0.7%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.8% -8.2% -3.5% -4.1%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.1% -7.1% -3.2% -3.4%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.8% -3.5% 0.1% -0.1%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.6% -10.4% -9.6% -8.0%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -9.5% -15.0% -12.0% -12.2%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -6.8% -4.8% -4.4%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.3% -11.4% -7.0% -6.4%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.1% -6.7% -3.5% -4.0%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.9% -2.7% -2.6% 0.4%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.0% -4.3% -1.9% -1.7%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.0% -5.2% -4.7% -4.6%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.2% -6.8% -7.8% -5.1%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.1% -4.7% -1.7% -1.7%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.1% -9.3% -4.7% -6.8%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.8% -6.2% -1.8% -1.5%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.3% 4.8% 6.3% 4.9%

    TV Pacing Charts Q4

        Oct Nov Dec Q4
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.4% -7.5% -7.8% -7.1%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.2% -8.8% -8.2% -6.8%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -5.4% -6.0% -6.1% -5.8%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.2% -3.3% -3.6% -2.0%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.8% -1.8% -3.9% -3.2%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.3% -20.0% -18.9% -18.6%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -14.6% -9.3% -12.3% -12.2%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.0% -22.7% -17.6% -20.2%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -5.9% -8.7% -7.7% -7.3%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -7.1% -9.5% -13.2% -9.5%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.2% -2.4% -1.5% -2.5%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.8% -5.7% -7.2% -6.6%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -9.6% -12.8% -10.2% -10.8%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -9.3% -10.3% -12.6% -10.5%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.4% -4.9% -2.3% -4.0%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -7.1% -9.1% -4.4% -7.1%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.3% -5.6% -8.3% -5.7%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -5.9% -3.8% -0.1% -3.8%

       

        Oct Nov Dec Q4
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.9% -18.9% -16.8% -18.0%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.1% -17.3% -14.9% -17.1%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.2% -16.8% -17.1% -17.4%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.7% -12.8% -9.6% -10.4%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -11.1% -13.6% -13.7% -12.7%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -31.0% -31.8% -28.0% -30.6%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -35.9% -39.5% -34.7% -36.9%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.6% -28.4% -35.0% -26.8%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -15.6% -21.8% -18.4% -18.5%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.0% -24.8% -16.3% -23.5%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.6% -16.3% -17.4% -16.7%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.7% -13.5% -13.2% -15.0%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -15.5% -21.2% -19.4% -18.5%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.3% -22.9% -23.9% -21.7%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -12.8% -19.2% -14.7% -15.6%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -12.7% -13.7% -7.1% -11.5%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.3% -11.9% -9.5% -16.4%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -10.7% -0.5% 11.4% -2.6%

        Oct Nov Dec Q4
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -10.0% -11.1% -10.7% -10.6%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.1% -11.2% -10.0% -9.6%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -9.3% -9.3% -9.7% -9.4%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.3% -6.1% -5.5% -4.5%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.3% -6.0% -7.4% -6.5%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.6% -23.7% -21.5% -22.3%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.2% -22.2% -21.6% -22.5%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.6% -24.4% -22.8% -22.2%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.7% -12.6% -10.9% -10.7%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.0% -14.1% -14.1% -13.6%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -7.3% -6.7% -6.7% -6.9%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -10.3% -8.3% -9.2% -9.3%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -11.6% -15.8% -13.5% -13.5%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -12.8% -14.8% -16.3% -14.4%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -7.0% -9.7% -6.5% -7.8%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.7% -10.5% -5.2% -8.4%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -9.6% -7.2% -8.6% -8.5%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -7.5% -2.7% 3.2% -3.4%