October 9, 2019
Product Roadmap Highlights:
Customize Your Pricing Algorithm
In the past few weeks you may have seen mention of our Product Roadmap. To summarize briefly, we are deciding what new products and services to offer, and we’d love your input. This week we thought we’d give a spotlight to one project: Customize Your Pricing Algorithm (details below).
If you like what you’ve read and/or if you’d like to hear about other ideas, simply click on the link below, (you can vote by leaving your email and marking Critical or Nice-To-Have). If you’ve already voted, first thank you, however, give a peek at this idea as it is a late edition. Thanks in advance for making ShareBuilder better!
Customize Your Pricing Algorithm
Would you or someone in your organization like to be able to alter the way ShareBuilder’s Pricing Algorithm works? This idea would allow customizable pricing algorithms to meet the desire of your team.
There are many ways to calculate price. It is a blend of both science and art. Often there are trade-offs between algorithms that are:
- Simple vs complex
- Higher risk and Higher reward vs Lower Risk and Lower Reward
- Time intensive vs quick-and-easy
This idea could be appropriate for either larger organizations that have a dedicated team of inventory & pricing experts or for managers who really want to get into the weeds of pricing.
ShareBuilders TV Forecast
TV Forecast Observations
Week-to-Week Pacing Changes
- All 3 months grew, but October added 2.8 points against November’s 0.9 and December’s 1.7.
- All categories saw growth in the quarter save MyNets and the DMA 101+ group.
- +8% for October
- -2% for November
- -5% for December
- +1.3% for the quarter
Week-to-Week Pacing Changes
Another 2.7 points were added to the National pace line this week, with every category showing strong growth.
- October picked up 3.6 points, November added 1.8, and December up 2.7.
While we’ve been hesitant to get too optimistic so early in the quarter, we’re hearing about all kinds of improved spending (see Advertiser Notes below) and are more confident in moving upwards. The forecasts below are still on the safe side, but constitute 4 to 4.5-point increases from our previous estimates:
- +8.5% for October
- -4% for November
- -8% for December
- Quarter up 3.8 points to -0.5%
Q4 Local + National
What a week! Our core forecast moves up from -1.2% to +0.7%, and we hope to move up further from here.
Open enrollment-related spending is huge in Q4, and a big reason for both the improved forecasts and the tightness seen in Daytime and Early Fringe, as a lot of those buys are comprised of :60+ spots.
We’re also hearing about more spending from DraftKings and FanDuel as more states legalize online gaming.
We’re also hearing about huge budgets for campaigns surrounding the census next year.
Just released Auto Sales figures show the Detroit 3, Japan 3 tumbling, yet SAAR stays strong.
Even though 2019 has been marked by six monthly U.S. sales declines, the toll on the industry had been relatively small, with demand slipping less than a percentage point through August.
That changed in a big way in September, as the biggest Asian automakers recorded double-digit sales declines and estimates for the Detroit 3 showed double-digit drops as well.
Blame the calendar for some of the damage. September had two fewer selling days than last year. More critically, sales around the critical Labor Day weekend this year were counted as part of August’s tally. Still, the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR), which factors out calendar swings, came in at a robust 17.16 million units; topping 17 million units for the fifth time this year.
Ford Motor Co. posted a 12% drop for Sept, according to Data Center estimates. Ford F-series truck sales dropped 13% during the month while Explorer sales plunged 47%.
GM and Fiat Chrysler fell an estimated 10%. Ram was the only FCA brand to post a gain during the month, rising 2.7%.
September sales figures for the Japan 3 and other Asian auto manufactures were dismal. Toyota’s combined (Toyota + Lexus) volume dropped 17%, their worst drop since 2011. Nissan Group dropped 18 percent, down for the ninth consecutive month while Infiniti collapsed 44%. Honda was down 14%, followed by Kia down 13% and Subaru down 9%. Others followed suit with Hyundai down 9% ending their 13-month winning streak while was Mazda down 11%. The only bright spot was Mitsubishi having posted a modest .2% increase in September.
Luxury brands fared better with September volume rising 6% at BMW, 4.5% at Mercedes-Benz, 7.5% at Land Rover, 2.2% at Porsche and 7% at Volvo. Jaguar posted a modest -1.9% decline for September.
Q3 – This latest quarter was the first in which each of the Detroit 3 began reporting on a quarterly basis.
GM posted gains in the July-September period, leading the automaker to a 6.3% increase. Chevy sales rose 4.6% to 507,273 units. GMC was up 11% to 140,789 vehicles. Buick rose 10% to 50,615 vehicles and Cadillac gained 7.2% to 39,961 deliveries.
Ford said its U.S. sales for the third quarter fell 4.9% to 580,251 vehicles. Light truck sales rose 8.8% while utility-vehicle sales fell 10.5%.
FCA’s Q3 sales rose a fraction, by 527 vehicles, to 565,045. Ram was the only brand to gain ground, surging 15%, while Jeep deliveries dropped 2%. Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat and Alfa Romeo also recorded drops.
Odds & Ends –
- There were 23 selling days in September 2019 vs. 25 in Sept 2018.
- Days to turn, or the average number of days a vehicle sits on a dealer lot before being purchased, was 75 days through Sept. 22, up 7 days from a year earlier. (J.D. Power)
- The average interest rate on a newvehicle loan fell for the sixth month in a row to stay under 6% for September at 5.7% percent. (Edmunds)
- Average incentive spending per unit in September was expected to reach $4,208, up from $4,014 last year. (J.D. Power)
Parting Shots –
“All year long we’ve been talking about high prices and rising interest rates keeping shoppers on the sidelines, but in the third quarter those pressures eased up just enough to get consumers back in a buying mood. If this momentum continues, we expect a solid finish to the year.” – – Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds’ senior manager of industry analysis
“As the global sales outlook continues to weaken, light-vehicle demand in the U.S. remains robust. This is despite the headwinds and uncertainty caused by rising tensions with Iran, the UAW strike at GM and ongoing trade concerns.” – – Jeff Schuster, head of global vehicle forecasts at LMC Automotive
TV Pacing Charts Q4
|All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||1.6%||-3.6%||-2.9%||-1.4%|
|ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||1.9%||-6.0%||-5.6%||-2.6%|
|CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||1.4%||-3.4%||-2.3%||-1.2%|
|NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||8.7%||3.3%||3.0%||5.4%|
|FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||5.6%||3.8%||3.5%||4.4%|
|CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-4.2%||-16.1%||-14.2%||-11.0%|
|MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-15.3%||-11.1%||-11.9%||-13.1%|
|TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-10.5%||-19.0%||-13.1%||-14.2%|
|Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||4.9%||-4.6%||-2.7%||-0.5%|
|Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-2.6%||-4.6%||-7.0%||-4.4%|
|South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||4.8%||2.0%||1.9%||3.1%|
|South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||0.6%||-1.4%||-1.1%||-0.5%|
|West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-0.7%||-9.8%||-6.3%||-5.3%|
|TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||0.3%||-7.3%||-8.0%||-4.7%|
|TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||3.7%||-0.4%||2.8%||2.1%|
|TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||2.8%||-7.5%||-2.1%||-2.1%|
|TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||0.5%||-0.2%||-1.5%||-0.2%|
|All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||44.9%||48.7%||8.1%||32.8%|
|All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-2.3%||-5.4%||-1.3%||-3.1%|
|ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-0.8%||-5.2%||-3.7%||-3.1%|
|CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-1.8%||-3.7%||1.6%||-1.5%|
|NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||7.9%||1.7%||6.1%||5.2%|
|FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||8.3%||4.2%||3.5%||5.5%|
|CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-7.7%||-6.2%||1.0%||-5.1%|
|MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-9.6%||-11.6%||-8.9%||-10.1%|
|TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-2.2%||-9.7%||-12.3%||-7.6%|
|Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||2.0%||-7.9%||-6.8%||-4.1%|
|Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-12.5%||-10.4%||0.0%||-8.6%|
|South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-2.4%||-4.7%||-2.2%||-3.2%|
|South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-1.2%||1.7%||3.5%||1.1%|
|West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-0.3%||-7.8%||-0.5%||-3.0%|
|TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-7.2%||-11.0%||-7.3%||-8.6%|
|TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||4.8%||-3.2%||3.8%||1.6%|
|TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||1.2%||-3.5%||1.8%||-0.3%|
|TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-2.9%||3.2%||2.0%||0.5%|
|All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-17.3%||2.8%||16.8%||-4.8%|
|All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||0.3%||-4.2%||-2.3%||-2.0%|
|ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||1.1%||-5.7%||-5.0%||-2.8%|
|CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||0.3%||-3.5%||-0.9%||-1.3%|
|NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||8.4%||2.8%||4.0%||5.3%|
|FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||6.6%||3.9%||3.5%||4.8%|
|CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-5.5%||-12.6%||-9.1%||-8.9%|
|MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-12.8%||-11.3%||-10.5%||-11.8%|
|TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-7.7%||-15.7%||-12.8%||-11.9%|
|Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||0.0%||-5.8%||-4.1%||-1.7%|
|Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-5.7%||-6.5%||-4.8%||-5.7%|
|South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||2.4%||-0.3%||0.4%||0.9%|
|South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-0.1%||-0.2%||0.5%||0.0%|
|West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-0.6%||-9.1%||-4.1%||-4.5%|
|TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-2.6%||-8.7%||-7.8%||-6.1%|
|TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||4.0%||-1.4%||3.2%||1.9%|
|TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||2.3%||-6.2%||-0.7%||-1.5%|
|TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-0.5%||0.8%||-0.4%||0.0%|
|All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace||-10.6%||-1.2%||3.2%||-4.6%|