Happy Thanksgiving from your friends at ShareBuilders!
This year, we’re especially grateful for the experience and insights of our clients, both new and established, and the relationships we’ve built. We’d like to wish you all a safe and happy holiday weekend. May your pants be stretchy and the gravy be plentiful.

ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -4.1%
Q2 -2.4%
Q3 -1.2%
Q4 0.7%
Oct Nov Dec Q4
Local 8.8% -5.0% -3.5% 0.4%
Natl 9.3% -2.0% -4.5%

1.1%

L+N 8.9% -4.0% -3.9% 0.7%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q4 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Stations saw a tiny rally in Local pace this week, with the quarter picking up a tenth of a point after multiples weeks of small declines.

It was all December’s doing, which climbed 1.3 points, while November lost 0.6, likely due to impeachment hearing-related preemptions.

NBC’s, CBS’s, ABC’s, and MyNets saw that December growth, as did all regions and DMA groups.

Forecast Updates

Preemptions due to special programming and just general tightness likely slowed down November, requiring us to lower our forecast half a point to -5%.

December looks a bit better today as some of our sample starts to see normal pacing again, so we’ll raise it a point:

  • +8.8% for October
  • -5.0% for November
  • -3.5% for December
  • +0.4 for the Quarter

Q4 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

to We saw some growth on the National side this week too, with the quarter gaining 0.4 points.

Like Local, it was driven by December growth, with the month picking up 1.4 points against November’s 0.1-point decline.

Every single category saw a December pickup.

Forecast Updates

The November patterns are a little hard to read. We’ll hold the -2% forecast for the month, but December looks at least half a point higher:

  • +9.3% for October
  • -2% for November
  • -4.5% for December
  • Quarter at +1.1%

Advertiser Notes

The big advertiser for most everyone we’ve talked to over the last few days has been Michael Bloomberg and his huge ad spend to support his late entry into the race for the Democratic nomination. The way he’s spending is different than any candidate has before, focusing on later primary states after recognizing that it’s too late to gain much ground in the early ones. This has led to very nice surprises for markets that didn’t expect December political, with more likely to come. Hold on folks, it seems quite clear than 2020 will be a very wild ride!

Q4 Local + National

The quarter’s combined forecast holds steady at +0.7%.

What’s The Story, Inventory?

Happy Holidays! With only one month remaining in Q4, volatility has declined, and inventory has opened through the end of the year. Since our last snapshot in early Q4, the percentage of stations Too Tight across all dayparts has been cut in half and has shifted mostly to Too Open and On Target. Dayparts seeing the biggest shift to open are Early Morning, Daytime, and Prime Access. Prime remains the most open daypart, averaging a projected sellout of 77% across all ShareBuilder stations.

 

 

TV Pacing Charts Q4

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.8% -4.8% -1.2% 0.8%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 12.6% -6.0% -2.8% 1.2%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.7% -6.7% -2.5% -0.1%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 15.5% -0.2% 3.0% 5.9%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.4% 1.2% 3.0% 4.6%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.3% -15.2% -10.7% -9.6%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -11.6% -10.2% -12.1% -11.2%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.2% -13.3% -14.4% -9.8%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.5% -6.8% 0.1% 2.9%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.5% -3.8% -2.5% -2.6%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.1% -1.1% 2.2% 4.9%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.8% -5.8% -4.2% -2.1%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.7% -5.7% -1.1% 0.7%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.1% -5.4% -3.8% 0.0%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.3% -3.6% 0.0% 2.5%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.1% -12.3% -3.8% -3.5%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.4% -1.8% 4.1% 1.9%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 37.0% 30.6% 32.4% 33.7%

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.3% -2.7% 0.2% 2.0%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.4% -0.5% 2.1% 5.4%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 12.0% -0.6% 3.5% 4.5%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 18.9% 2.9% 10.6% 10.2%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 17.7% 6.9% 4.3% 9.7%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.9% 1.7% 10.0% 3.1%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.5% -5.2% -2.5% -3.9%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.7% -14.3% -11.4% -6.7%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 20.3% -8.4% -10.0% -0.4%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.0% -1.5% 0.5% -3.2%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 13.9% 1.6% -0.5% 4.8%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.5% -2.5% 3.8% 1.3%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.8% -1.7% 7.5% 6.1%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.6% -6.4% -4.0% -2.3%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 20.4% 1.9% 7.9% 9.5%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.8% -7.6% -3.8% -1.6%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.4% 2.5% -0.2% 2.0%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.7% -15.0% 11.0% -14.9%
      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.9% -4.1% -0.7% 1.2%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 13.6% -4.4% -1.3% 2.4%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.4% -4.7% -0.4% 1.4%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.5% 0.7% 5.5% 7.3%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 12.2% 3.2% 3.5% 6.4%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -9.7% -4.0% -5.3%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.3% -8.1% -7.9% -8.1%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.4% -13.7% -13.2% -8.6%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -7.3% -3.4% 1.8%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.5% -3.1% -1.5% -2.8%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.0% -0.2% 1.2% 4.9%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.7% -4.6% -1.4% -0.9%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.5% -4.3% 2.0% 2.6%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.0% -5.8% -3.9% -0.9%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.2% -1.7% 2.8% 4.9%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.3% -11.0% -3.8% -3.0%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.1% -0.7% 2.8% 2.0%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -14.9% -9.2% 5.7% -8.1%