ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -4.6%
Q2 -2.4%
Q3 -1.2%
Q4 0.7%
Oct Nov Dec Q4
Local 8.7% -4.5% -4.5% 0.4%
Natl 9.4% -2.7% -1.4%

1.6%

L+N 8.9% -3.6% -4.7% 0.7%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q4 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Local pacing dropped six-tenths of a point this week, with November falling by one point and December by 0.8.

Just about all categories fell, though our larger markets moved up slightly. Preemptions are a continuing problem for November due to tightness and the impeachment hearing coverage.

Forecast Updates

Our numbers are still in the state of flux we mentioned last week, so we’ll continue to be cautious in changing our forecasts based on those numbers. The good news is there’s nothing glaring that says that we should move away from last week’s forecasts:

  • +8.7% for October
  • -4.5% for November
  • -4.5% for December
  • +0.4 for the Quarter

Q4 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National didn’t see as much change as Local this week, losing only 0.1 points, with November 0.3-point gaining almost cancelling out December’s 0.6-point loss.

Forecast Updates

Again, we are hesitant to change our numbers much and will leave the forecasts as is. It’s possible November will end slightly weaker, but December might be a bit stronger:

  • +9.5% for October
  • -2% for November
  • -5% for December
  • Quarter at +1.2%

Q4 Local + National

We continue to keep things relatively unchanged, leaving our forecast once more at +0.7%.

ShareBuilder Spotlight: Daypart Summary Gets an Update

You may have noticed on your calls this week that the Daypart Summary Chart has new information.  Traditionally, the chart has shown the projected sellout and % revenue for your station, but you can now see the same chart for your ownership group and all ShareBuilders clients. It’s a quick way to analyze daypart buying trends and track early/late placement for future quarters. For example, we hear a lot of stations voicing concern over low Prime sellouts this quarter, but a quick study of the projected sellout for Prime for all stations would tell you that it’s a trend across the country.

This is a first step in mining our collective data to give our clients more insight into national trends. Our consultants are often asked things like, “What are you hearing about Super Bowl sellouts?” In the future, we’d like to use our aggregate data to answer those questions. What kind of data would your station find helpful? If you have feedback, we would love for you to share it with your consultant.

 

 

TV Pacing Charts Q4

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.7% -4.3% -2.7% 0.6%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 12.6% -6.0% -3.7% 1.0%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.7% -7.0% -5.7% -1.1%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 15.5% 0.5% 1.0% 5.8%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.4% 3.6% 3.4% 5.6%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.4% -14.1% -10.4% -9.0%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -11.6% -11.0% -14.9% -12.2%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.4% -14.3% -13.4% -10.2%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.3% -5.9% -0.7% 2.9%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.5% -4.5% -5.1% -3.6%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.0% -1.1% 0.4% 4.7%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.8% -4.9% -5.1% -2.0%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.7% -4.5% -2.8% 0.7%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.9% -5.6% -5.4% -0.6%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.3% -2.0% -0.5% 3.0%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.1% -12.3% -5.5% -3.8%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.4% -1.4% 1.5% 1.5%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 65.8% 68.1% 71.2% 68.1%

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.4% -2.7% -1.4% 1.6%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.4% 0.3% 0.3% 5.3%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 12.5% -3.5% 0.3% 2.5%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 18.9% 3.8% 7.5% 9.6%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 17.8% 9.0% 4.5% 10.4%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.3% 0.0% 9.2% 2.3%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.5% -4.4% -3.9% -4.0%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.7% -8.9% -13.7% -5.1%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 20.3% -5.3% -10.8% 0.4%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -7.8% -3.0% -1.6% -4.3%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.6% 1.3% -1.8% 4.6%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.5% -2.5% 3.1% 1.1%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.8% -3.3% 4.3% 4.6%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.7% -7.8% -5.9% -3.3%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 20.8% 3.0% 6.4% 9.5%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.8% -6.4% -5.8% -1.8%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.5% 3.9% -1.7% 2.2%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.7% -15.4% 11.6% -15.3%
      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.9% -3.8% -2.3% 0.9%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 13.6% -4.1% -2.5% 2.2%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.6% -5.8% -3.6% 0.1%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.5% 1.5% 3.2% 7.0%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 12.3% 5.6% 3.8% 7.3%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.7% -9.5% -4.1% -5.2%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.3% -8.2% -10.1% -8.7%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.6% -12.3% -13.5% -8.4%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -5.7% -4.3% 2.1%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.5% -4.1% -4.0% -3.8%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.2% -0.3% -0.4% 4.7%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.7% -4.0% -2.2% -0.9%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.5% -4.0% -0.2% 2.1%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.9% -6.4% -5.6% -1.6%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.3% -0.3% 2.0% 5.3%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.3% -10.6% -5.6% -3.2%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.7%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -14.7% -9.6% 5.0% -8.4%