ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -7.6%
Q2 -40.7%
Q3 -19.1%
Q4 -5.3%
April May June Q2
Local -45.9% -40.0% -31.0% -39.1%
Natl -48.4% -46.0% -40.0% -44.7%
L+N -46.6% -41.7% -33.7% -40.7%
July Aug Sept Q3
Local -25.0% -20.0% -10.0% -18.4%
Natl -30.0% -25.0% -15.0% -23.4%
L+N -25.7% -20.7% -10.7% -19.1%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q2 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Local Q2 pace dropped three-tenths of a point this week, though most of the declines came just yesterday, which suggests perhaps a wobble due to the Memorial Day timing.

Once again, May picked up 0.3 points week to week, though not all categories grew – ABC and NBC pace fell a bit, likely due to coming up against late-booking NHL and NBA dollars last year.

June fell again, losing 1.4 points. The Northeast and our Top 20 market stations had a slightly better week.

 

Forecast Updates

May’s continued growth requires another forecast increase, just a small one.
We’re also starting to be more optimistic about June based on May growth. May added 13 points of revenue from 4/27 and on, which might predict a -26.5% finish for June. Furthermore, it only fell one pace point in that same time period, which might predict more like -29%. So our true finish might be in that range of -26.5% to -29%. We’re going to go with -31% today and see how this week, likely a heavy cancellation week, turns out. But we like the direction we’re going!
Forecasts this week come to:

 

  • -45.9% for April
  • -40.0% for May – up 1.7 points from last week
  • -31.0% for June – up 2 points from last week
  • -39.1% for the quarter – up 0.8 points

Q2 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

The quarter’s pace climbed just a tenth of a point this week. Interestingly, May grew by 1.2 points, but June lost the same amount.

May growth was seen across the board, though it was particularly strong in our top 65 DMA stations.

June’s declines were widespread, though like Local, our larger stations fared a bit better.

Forecast Updates

May’s continued growth requires another increase, just as we’d hoped.
June is harder to call: as in Local, we are seeing positive signs, particularly if we study what happened in May. From 4/27 until now, May added 12 points of business, which would suggest closer to a -34% finish for June. May only lost half a pace point in that time, which would point to -38% for June. May trends suggest a -34% to -38% finish for June, but that’s such a big jump over the -46% for May, so we want to give this a little more time before we move up and will hold our current forecast.

Here are our forecasts for the week:

  • -48.4% for April
  • -46.0% for May – up 1.5 points
  • -40.0% for June – flat to last week
  • -44.7% for the quarter – up 0.5 point

 

Q2 Local + National

We continue to be thrilled by our sandbagging on the May finish. It was an intentional sandbag, wanting to call each month conservatively so as not to convey a quick explosion of improvement from the ugliness of April. However, all signs are pointing to a faster pickup from May to June than we originally predicted, which is exciting, and suggests even greater improvement into Q3.

With that said, do not forget that you had advertisers that pushed money from April to May, then from May to June, and they may not be able to stay on in June. The Tier 3 auto category is definitely struggling as production is slow to ramp up and inventories are dwindling. And of course, at least in some parts of the country, tourism and entertainment will continue to struggle as gatherings are limited to a small number of people. We will see declines, but May tells us that we’ll take more steps forward than backwards.

We’re looking at a quarterly finish of -40.7% this week, up 0.8 points from last week’s estimate. We anticipate that we will continue to increase that by small ticks, and can’t wait to share that improving outlook with you.

Q3 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Local Q3 pace continues to fall as we predicted it would, losing 2.3 points over the last week.

July lost 2.5 points, August 2.2, and September 2.1.
This consistent loss in each month suggests that we’re coming up against quarterly buys that were hitting this time a year ago. Remember, we know money this year will be late, so these declines are not surprising and not necessarily a sign that things will not improve from Q2.

 

Forecast Updates

As you may have read over the last few weeks, our Q3 forecasting is based off of where we see May and June finishing. So as each of those months looks better, our outlook for Q3 will improve.

With that said, the improving June doesn’t change our outlook for Q3, which shows continued improvement throughout the month. So our forecasts remain:

 

  • -25.0% for July
  • -20.0% for August
  • -10.0% for September
  • -18.4% for the quarter 

Q3 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

As in Local, late quarterly buys have pushed Q3 pace down 4.6 points in the last week.
July fell by 3.2 points, August by 4.9, and September by 6.1.

July losing less is a good sign of monthly business hitting. Furthermore, most of this quarter’s drop occurred in just the last day, which might be explained by the timing of Memorial Day.

Forecast Updates

As in Local, Q2’s forecasts haven’t changed enough to tell us to change Q3’s forecasts. If anything, we might be a little optimistic for July, though our thinking is that National is well-positioned to move up quickly, especially as more network money comes to states that are more “open” than the country as whole.

Here are our forecasts for the week:

  • -30.0% for July
  • -25.0% for August 
  • -15% for September
  • -23.4% for the quarter 

 

Q3 Local + National

Here comes our now regular disclaimer: we have no idea how quickly we’ll see spending improve, we can only react to the improvements we’re seeing in May and June. Typically we study pace patterns to make more educated predictions, but because of the Q3 lateness against now rapidly growing Q3 2019 billing, we can’t trust those patterns. Furthermore, as you well know, we’re currently in a strange new world against which we have no history to compare.

So as we’ve said before, we can’t commit to each month’s exact numbers but instead the trajectory of slow improvement from Q2. We’re hopeful for a steeper curve upwards, especially if some of the latest stories on returning sports bear fruit. Until then, we’ll hold our combined Q3 Core forecast of -19.1%.

Employee Spotlight: Logan Simpson

Senior Pricing Analyst

Logan Simpson is a Senior Pricing Analyst for ShareBuilders. He started with the company in the spring of 2015. Logan holds a bachelor’s degree from Monmouth College. ShareBuilders was his first post-collegiate work experience, and we’ve been lucky keep him on our team. He enjoys the work/life balance ShareBuilders offers, and appreciates having the freedom to work at his own pace while still making deadlines.

 While Logan is stellar with numerical analysis, his true passion is soccer. He even played in the NCAA Final Four soccer tournament his freshman year at Dominican University (he later transferred to Monmouth.)  Logan has since spent time coaching local high school soccer and plays as often as he can throughout the year. Logan also enjoys the outdoors; camping and hiking are some of his favorite activities. 

Logan resides in Central Illinois with his wife, Valerie, and their recently adopted a puppy, Luna. ShareBuilders is proud to have Logan on our team.

TV Pacing Charts Q2

      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.9% -40.4% -27.9% -39.1%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.4% -38.0% -25.8% -36.7%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.0% -42.7% -28.6% -41.2%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.1% -36.5% -22.5% -35.0%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.0% -39.2% -25.4% -38.2%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.9% -46.5% -37.3% -45.7%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.0% -46.5% -37.3% -45.0%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.1% -50.7% -45.4% -49.9%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.6% -39.8% -25.3% -38.1%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -54.5% -47.9% -41.4% -48.5%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.9% -39.5% -23.1% -36.3%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.5% -36.1% -22.4% -34.7%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.2% -41.6% -32.7% -41.2%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.6% -46.6% -34.3% -44.5%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.1% -40.2% -25.7% -38.3%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.7% -39.8% -22.4% -38.3%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.1% -33.2% -24.8% -34.0%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.4% -46.3% -37.3% -44.3%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.9% -49.4% -39.0% -45.6%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.6% -46.9% -37.9% -45.0%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.6% -42.3% -31.8% -41.5%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.6% -46.4% -38.0% -44.2%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -49.7% -46.9% -38.7% -45.4%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.0% -45.0% -44.8% -45.6%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.1% -48.1% -41.1% -46.6%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.9% -48.8% -34.5% -46.4%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -49.5% -46.6% -40.7% -45.8%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.3% -45.8% -38.4% -42.1%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.0% -44.8% -34.3% -42.8%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.4% -45.3% -40.2% -44.5%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.3% -49.5% -42.4% -48.7%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.8% -46.5% -36.9% -44.0%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.5% -40.5% -27.2% -38.2%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.7% -42.3% -33.7% -39.5%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.6% -42.2% -31.0% -40.7%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -44.5% -41.1% -29.8% -39.1%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.2% -44.0% -31.6% -42.3%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.9% -38.2% -25.3% -36.8%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.2% -41.8% -30.2% -40.3%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.3% -46.6% -37.7% -45.6%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.9% -45.9% -40.4% -45.2%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -52.2% -49.9% -44.1% -48.9%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -42.4% -28.2% -40.6%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.0% -47.5% -41.2% -47.7%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.4% -41.5% -28.2% -38.1%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -44.0% -38.5% -26.0% -37.0%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.2% -42.9% -35.4% -42.4%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.5% -47.6% -37.1% -45.9%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.6% -42.3% -29.7% -40.2%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.9% -40.0% -23.7% -38.3%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.4% -35.4% -27.4% -35.3%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

    TV Pacing Charts Q3

        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.1% -18.0% -10.0% -16.3%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.4% -15.7% -9.3% -14.0%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.9% -19.0% -10.4% -17.0%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.2% -13.1% -7.7% -12.5%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.3% -19.2% -11.8% -19.3%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -15.5% -15.5% 2.5% -10.5%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.2% -26.7% -10.3% -22.5%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -36.5% -38.7% -30.4% -35.5%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.4% -20.6% -16.0% -19.4%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.1% -25.4% -12.7% -22.7%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.3% -11.8% -2.7% -11.1%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -14.0% -12.7% -6.1% -11.1%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.3% -26.0% -15.0% -22.9%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.5% -21.8% -9.9% -19.4%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.3% -18.0% -10.9% -17.1%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.7% -15.6% -8.4% -13.7%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.0% -13.4% -9.7% -12.0%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.4% -40.0% -35.9% -40.0%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -33.3% -28.3% -22.3% -28.4%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.1% -39.3% -39.8% -40.9%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -39.8% -36.5% -35.3% -37.3%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.5% -51.6% -41.3% -49.1%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -35.5% -20.4% -9.3% -23.2%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -56.4% -61.6% -49.2% -56.7%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -58.4% -56.3% -57.5% -57.4%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.0% -37.6% -43.0% -42.1%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.2% -30.8% -23.9% -31.3%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.3% -40.9% -27.8% -37.0%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.8% -35.0% -36.7% -37.5%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.5% -48.4% -39.1% -45.3%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -54.5% -45.2% -33.3% -45.1%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.5% -43.1% -42.5% -43.8%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -37.8% -23.8% -31.0% -31.2%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -15.2% -32.1% -30.8% -25.9%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.8% -22.5% -15.2% -21.1%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.3% -17.9% -11.5% -16.5%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.6% -23.3% -16.9% -22.1%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.7% -17.6% -12.6% -17.1%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -31.3% -26.3% -18.4% -25.8%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.3% -16.4% 0.3% -12.9%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -34.6% -37.0% -20.5% -31.7%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.7% -42.9% -37.3% -40.8%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.4% -23.8% -20.8% -23.8%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.9% -26.3% -14.9% -24.2%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.7% -17.1% -7.4% -15.9%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.7% -16.8% -11.6% -15.8%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -31.5% -32.3% -21.6% -28.9%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -31.3% -27.2% -15.2% -25.2%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.2% -23.2% -17.3% -22.5%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.6% -17.0% -12.3% -16.8%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.3% -16.6% -13.2% -14.3%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%