ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -3.1%
Q2 -3.3%
Q3 1.4%
Q4 -3.6%

 

Jan Feb Mar Q1
Local -2.1% -6.1% -0.5% -2.9%
Natl -0.9% -7.2% -2.5%

-3.6%

L+N -1.8% -6.4% -1.1% -3.1%

 

April May June Q2
Local -5.5% -2.0% -1.5% -3.3%
Natl -4.0% -3.5% -1.5%

-3.2%

L+N -5.3% -2.3% -1.5% -3.3%

 

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q1 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q1 continues to decline, dropping 0.5 points this week, mostly thanks to February’s 1.1-point drop, with March down 0.5 points.

Forecast Updates

February’s dip might have had something to do with big last-minute political buys in some markets (though we don’t see National as significantly affected). Whatever the reason, we’ll have to lower our estimated finish.

It’s possible we’re up to a point too strong for our March forecast, but we’ve heard of a lot of February preempts that will have to go somewhere, so we’ll see what happens this week before we lower.

Our forecasts are now:

  • -2.1% for January
  • -6.1% for February – down 0.6 points
  • -0.5% for March – flat to last week
  • Quarter at -2.9% – down a 0.1 points

Q1 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National fell just 0.3 points in the quarter this week.

Unlike Local, where February showed the biggest declines, March dropped the most on the National side – 1.1 points versus February’s small 0.2-point drop.

 Forecast Updates

As we referenced in the Local section above, we’re surprised February National didn’t feel the political displacement like Local did, so our final estimate doesn’t change significantly.

March continues to look stronger, but the upcoming week was the big billing week for March 2019. If after this coming week pacing still looks strong, we’ll be more confident in taking the forecast to something more like -1.5%. It’s also possible we’re a bit high on Local, so between Local and National we’re probably right on. 

Our forecasts today don’t move much:

  • -0.9% for January
  • -7.2% for February – down 0.2 points
  • -2.5% for March – flat to last week
  • Quarter at -3.6% – flat to last week

Q1 Local + National

Political certainly threw many of our customers for a loop in the last week – either they’re in Super Tuesday states and got slammed with last-minute buys, or they got hit with late cancellations from the Buttigieg and Klobuchar campaigns after they dropped out. Markets in later March and April primaries are in a tough spot, waiting out Super Tuesday to guess who remains in the race and continues to spend. For Super Tuesday and earlier primary states, March might benefit from February’s preemptions, but for the rest, now’s your time to get rich on the political cash, and deal with the effect on the core business.

We’ll keep an eye on it all and report what we know via this newsletter and on your regular calls. In the meantime, the quarter is on track to -3.1% for total core, a forecast down just a tenth of a point from last week. That number would be more like -1.5% if not for our lopsided CBS and Fox station count that forces our numbers to feel the effect of the Super Bowl more than it does in any given market. Not bad for so much political in so many markets.

Q2 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

After a couple of weeks of pacing declines, Q2 Local pace grew by 0.4 points this week.

April fell by 1.1 points, but May added a big 2.4, and June was up by 0.1.

May’s growth was most significant for NBC and ABC stations and in markets 21+.

Forecast Updates

Q1 continues to pace well, but we don’t want to make major forecast moves each week until we get a little closer to the month, so we’ll hold last week’s forecasts.  April and June both look like they could be stronger, however in April’s case, we may not be feeling yet the full effect of our CBS stations losing the Final Four and NCAA Championship games, so we want to wait that out a bit.

Forecasts remain at:

  • -5.5% for April
  • -2.0% for May
  • -1.5% for June
  • Quarter at -3.3%

Q2 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National pace dropped 5.2 points this week but remains quite strong.

April lost 5.8 points, May 4.6, and June 4.8.

Almost all categories fell for the quarter, though ABC’s, the South Atlantic, and markets 66-100 showed improvement.

Forecast Updates

Like Local, we’re waiting for more money to hit before we move the forecasts, but if Q2 comes in like Q1 did (quite similar to 2017, for some reason), then we’re on track to the numbers below or a bit more:

  • -4.0% for April
  • -3.5% for May
  • -1.5% for June
  • Quarter at -3.2%

Q2 Local + National

We’re keeping our combined forecast at -3.3% today, though there are indications that the quarter, especially April and June, could be better. Much better, which is why we’re so cautious – the Q1 patterns point to high-single-digits finishes for Q2, and that feels pretty optimistic at this point. May does continue to look a little softer than the other two months, so we’re watching that as well. With so much money still to book, the missing March Madness money, and the uncertainty surrounding political and the coronavirus, we’re holding tight for now. We’ll definitely let you know when we’re feeling more confident.

Employee Spotlight: Katie Kelly

Holding Capacity Coordinator

 

Katie Kelly graduated from Bradley University with a degree in Radio and Television Communications in 2005, and she joined the ShareBuilders family shortly thereafter. Katie has worn many proverbial hats during her tenure with ShareBuilders, and currently serves as Holding Capacity Coordinator. She enjoys the challenge of creating and maintaining the television market models, and has been known to volubly declare victory when solving particularly complex problems.

Outside of work, Katie is a voracious reader, avid gardener, and lifelong penguin enthusiast. She lives in Central Illinois with her husband Jim and 2-year-old son Samuel. In a desperate attempt to pass her love of literature on to her son, Katie frequently quotes children’s books in casual conversation. ShareBuilders is proud to have Katie’s expertise and colorful personality on their team.

TV Pacing Charts Q1

    Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.1% -6.1% -1.0% -3.2%
     
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.3% -3.5% -1.5% -2.8%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.8% -29.5% 1.2% -9.2%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.5% -2.8% -2.1% -2.8%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.6% 51.0% 5.1% 16.8%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.8% -11.5% -4.0% -6.3%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.0% -4.7% -9.3% -7.4%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.5% -12.1% -12.3% -12.6%
     
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.7% 3.0% -3.6% -1.5%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.2% -7.7% -5.3% -4.0%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -5.0% -6.9% 2.8% -3.1%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.6% -6.2% 1.4% -2.2%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.9% -12.5% -1.7% -5.3%
     
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.3% -16.3% -1.7% -7.1%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.6% 6.8% -0.3% 2.0%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.0% -11.2% -2.1% -5.6%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.2% -2.1% -0.5% -2.0%
     
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.5% 0.3% 14.7% 6.1%
    Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.9% -7.2% 0.5% -2.7%
     
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.9% -3.7% 4.1% -0.5%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.4% -45.6% 4.3% -16.4%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -6.2% -7.8% -4.9%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.5% 68.7% 8.1% 25.2%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.2% 0.8% 12.0% 6.8%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.6% -6.5% 4.3% -1.9%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.1% -8.4% -8.4% -9.8%
     
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.9% 3.1% -3.0% -0.6%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.3% -11.8% 6.0% -4.9%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.5% -9.7% 3.3% -3.1%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.0% -6.6% 7.3% -0.4%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.3% -11.1% -7.8% -5.3%
     
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.5% -18.5% -3.0% -10.0%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.2% 9.1% 5.1% 6.2%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.9% -5.3% 2.0% -0.5%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.7% -2.2% 0.4% 0.6%
     
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 23.1% 27.7% -9.9% 13.6%
      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -6.4% -0.6% -3.0%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.9% -3.5% 0.0% -2.2%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.3% -35.0% 2.1% -11.5%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.6% -3.7% -3.8% -3.4%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.3% 57.1% 6.2% 19.7%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.6% -7.5% 1.4% -2.2%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.4% -5.4% -4.0% -5.3%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.4% -10.9% -11.1% -11.7%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 3.0% -3.4% -1.2%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.0% -9.0% -2.1% -4.3%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.3% -7.8% 2.9% -3.1%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.4% -6.3% 3.3% -1.7%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.0% -12.0% -3.9% -5.3%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.7% -17.1% -2.1% -8.1%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.9% 7.6% 1.6% 3.4%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.7% -9.8% -1.0% -4.3%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -2.1% -0.3% -1.5%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.1% 13.2% 0.2% 6.7%

     

    TV Pacing Charts Q2

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.3% 3.3% 12.4% 7.0%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.2% 1.2% 14.5% 6.1%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.6% 0.6% 8.9% 1.5%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.3% 5.2% 14.6% 9.8%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.5% 2.6% 13.9% 8.8%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.4% 5.5% 10.6% 10.9%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -6.3% 3.3% -1.9%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -10.9% -15.1% -8.4% -11.6%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.5% -0.2% 7.0% 2.4%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.3% 23.7% 28.8% 19.7%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.1% 3.7% 18.3% 11.8%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.9% -0.3% 10.2% 4.6%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.9% 2.1% 8.3% 4.9%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 13.8% 12.9% 20.7% 15.4%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.5% -0.8% 11.2% 4.6%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.2% -3.8% 6.5% -1.1%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.2% -1.6% 5.2% 2.2%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.5% -0.6% 7.9% 4.5%

       

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 20.7% 15.0% 26.7% 20.4%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 33.4% 19.6% 32.9% 28.5%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.3% 29.3% 35.4% 22.1%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 17.5% 15.7% 36.1% 21.4%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.6% -12.4% 7.4% 1.2%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.2% -4.4% 5.1% 0.2%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 25.8% 23.9% 25.1% 25.0%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.4% 4.6% 10.3% 4.8%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -12.9% -14.9% -8.4% -12.4%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 17.5% 26.4% 59.5% 30.0%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 55.2% 36.0% 45.4% 46.2%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 56.0% 30.4% 43.6% 43.9%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.9% 11.9% 19.6% 9.9%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 19.0% 23.2% 30.3% 23.2%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.8% -3.1% 15.8% 6.4%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 28.0% 20.5% 33.7% 27.0%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 47.7% 27.3% 33.2% 36.5%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.4% -13.6% 7.1% -3.3%

       

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.0% 5.3% 14.8% 9.4%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.7% 4.2% 17.5% 9.7%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.1% 5.3% 12.9% 5.1%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.4% 6.7% 17.3% 11.4%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.4% -0.5% 12.8% 7.3%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 13.3% 3.6% 9.7% 8.9%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.3% -1.0% 7.0% 2.9%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.3% -11.2% -5.0% -8.3%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.3% -2.8% 4.4% -0.2%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.6% 24.1% 33.2% 21.4%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 20.8% 8.6% 22.3% 17.1%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 13.2% 4.5% 15.5% 10.9%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.4% 4.3% 10.6% 6.0%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 15.0% 15.1% 22.7% 17.1%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.3% -1.2% 12.0% 4.9%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.3% -0.5% 10.2% 2.7%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.8% 2.3% 8.9% 6.7%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.9% -3.5% 7.8% 2.8%