ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -3.2%
Q2 -3.3%
Q3 1.4%
Q4 -3.6%

 

Jan Feb Mar Q1
Local -2.1% -5.9% -1.0% -3.0%
Natl -0.9% -7.5% -2.5%

-3.7%

L+N -1.8% -6.4% -1.5% -3.2%

 

April May June Q2
Local -5.5% -2.0% -1.5% -3.3%
Natl -4.0% -3.5% -2.5%

-3.4%

L+N -5.3% -2.3% -1.7% -3.3%

 

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q1 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Both March and Q1 as a whole fell 0.1 points this week.

Most categories were down, though CWs and ABCs saw some growth, as did the South Central, West, and Midwest. Markets 21-65 and 101+ experienced growth, as well.

Forecast Updates

While all prior year billing patterns say that March could grow from here, that feels optimistic with coronavirus fears and general tightness. We’ll lower our forecast 0.5 points. On the other hand, for the 2 days that fall into broadcast Q2, there were no crossover days last year in March, so we might get a little late boost as Q2 business books.

Our forecasts are now:

  • -2.1% for January
  • -5.9% for February
  • -1.0% for March – down 0.5 points from last week
  • Quarter at -3.0% – down 0.1 points

Q1 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National had a tough week, with the quarter losing 0.8 points thanks to March’s 2.2-point drop.

Only NBCs, the South Central region, and markets 101+ had a positive week for the month of March.

Forecast Updates

As in Local, prior year booking patterns say that March could be stronger, but we’re playing it safe and sticking with an expectation of continued pacing loss and holding our forecast at -2.5% for the month:

  • -0.9% for January
  • -7.5% for February
  • -2.5% for March – flat to last week
  • Quarter at -3.7% – down a 0.1 points due to a February adjustment

Q1 Local + National

Our combined forecast drops just 0.1 points to -3.2% for the quarter. As referenced above, we’re starting to talk more and more about the coronavirus on our consulting calls, though cancellations related to the virus and its effects have been minimal. So far, we’ve heard only about airline and small local cancellations, but next will likely be cancellations from cruise lines and tourism boards as people cut back on unnecessary travel. After that, we might see cancellations from local events as the practice of social distancing and avoiding crowds ramps up, particularly in markets where cases of the virus are popping up.

Q2 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Local pacing fell 1.2 points this week in the quarter. April lost 2.8 points, but May climbed by 0.1 points, while June fell by just 0.4 points.

The April declines were very widespread – only our ABC and 101+ market groups grew.

Forecast Updates

As we get closer to the start of the quarter, we can more confidently trust the pacing patterns and how money is coming in relative to last year. Looking at that information and comparing to the billing patterns of Q1, there are two possibilities:

1) April and June could be stronger than our current forecasts below, with May right on.

2) April and June are right on, and May is softer.

For now, we’ll assume the latter, but we’re watching it closely.

One theory for May’s continued softness relative to the other Q2 months (this applies to National as well): Memorial Day is early this year, on 5/25. The week of Memorial Day is historically a soft demand week. In some years, part of that week is May calendar, and part is June, but this year, the entire week is in May, both broadcast and standard calendar. That’s a lot of weak days in the month of May, which could explain its softness versus the other months. Let us know if you have other theories!

Here are our forecasts, unchanged from last week:

  • -5.5% for April
  • -2.0% for May
  • -1.5% for June
  • Quarter at -3.3%

Q2 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

We knew National pace was overinflated with earliness against a late 2019. We’re really starting to see the declines now, with the quarter losing 11.4 points in the last week.

April fell by 10, May by 9.8, and June by 15.4, with every category we measure down for the quarter.

Forecast Updates

We see May issues on the National side too, but it’s more significant on the Local end. Right now, we like our forecasts for the first two months of the quarter, but are unsure about June. We’ll drop June by 1 point, taking our forecasts to:

  • -4.0% for April
  • -3.5% for May
  • -2.5% for June – down 1 point
  • Quarter at -3.4% – down 0.2 points

Q2 Local + National

There’s a lot going on out there, but as we explain below, the best we can do is look at our data objectively and take it one day at a time, ready to change as the data changes. Today, the data says to leave our combined forecast alone at -3.3%. Here’s hoping it only looks better from here.

Pricing In Uncertain Times

 

How do you price and plan for a pandemic? Well, you first need to decide what level of risk you’re comfortable with. Would you rather assume the worst about COVID-19 and its effect on advertising, and keep pricing targets lower? If you do that and you don’t end up with a lot of cancellations, you might end up far too tight. Or, vice versa: you assume that everything is going to be ok and the coronavirus’s effect on your revenue won’t be too strong. However, if things get bad, we’ve got another Q4 2008 on our hands, and you’re wide open.

We recommend somewhere in between. If you know you’re going to lose a Carnival Cruise Lines buy, for example, definitely account for that in your pricing. Don’t ignore what’s right in front of you. If you’re in between two numbers with no real clarity whether you should go high or low, maybe go with the lower end to be safe.

But don’t overdo it either. We don’t yet know how bad it will get, and some markets will be less affected than others. If the worse does happen, and we’re in another sharp recession, how you’re pricing now probably won’t really matter much: you’ll lose money regardless.

Most importantly: stay disciplined. Stay on top of the new information, make your regular calls, and publish new rate cards regularly. None of us knows what the future holds. The best we can do is be agile and respond quickly to new data. We’re here to help!

And remember: if you’re forced to work remotely, ShareBuilders and Efficio are accessible anywhere with an internet connection. If you have any problems accessing either, reach out to your consultant or our Help Desk for assistance.

TV Pacing Charts Q1

      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.1% -5.9% -1.1% -3.1%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.3% -2.6% -1.0% -2.3%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.8% -29.8% 0.7% -9.3%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.5% -2.8% -2.2% -2.8%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.6% 50.9% 4.0% 16.3%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.8% -9.8% -3.8% -5.8%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.0% -4.9% -10.1% -7.7%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.5% -12.9% -14.8% -13.8%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.7% 3.2% -2.4% -1.0%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.2% -8.1% -5.8% -4.4%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -5.0% -6.7% 0.8% -3.6%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.6% -6.2% 1.7% -2.2%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.9% -12.7% -1.0% -5.1%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.3% -16.6% -2.2% -7.2%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.6% 7.0% 0.1% 2.1%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.0% -11.2% -3.8% -6.1%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.2% -1.7% 0.3% -1.6%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.6% 4.5% 13.8% 8.2%
      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.9% -7.5% -1.7% -3.5%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.9% -3.3% 2.3% -0.9%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.4% -45.8% 0.7% -17.1%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -7.2% -7.1% -5.0%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.5% 68.5% 5.2% 23.8%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.2% 0.7% 2.6% 3.4%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.6% -6.8% -2.9% -4.4%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.1% -9.3% -11.7% -11.3%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.9% 2.9% -3.7% -1.0%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.3% -12.0% -2.1% -7.1%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.5% -10.0% 0.5% -4.0%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.0% -6.9% 8.2% -0.1%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.3% -11.5% -10.6% -6.5%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.5% -19.1% -7.6% -11.6%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.2% 8.9% 3.3% 5.4%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.9% -5.3% -1.5% -1.8%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.7% -1.5% 5.3% 2.4%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 23.1% 28.6% -6.6% 14.5%

     

      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -6.4% -1.3% -3.2%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.9% -2.8% -0.1% -1.9%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.3% -35.3% 0.7% -11.8%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.6% -4.0% -3.6% -3.4%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.3% 57.0% 4.5% 18.9%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.6% -6.6% -1.6% -2.9%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.4% -5.7% -7.2% -6.4%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.4% -11.8% -13.8% -13.0%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 3.1% -2.8% -1.0%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.0% -9.3% -4.7% -5.2%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.3% -7.7% 0.7% -3.8%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.4% -6.5% 3.8% -1.5%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.0% -12.3% -4.3% -5.5%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.7% -17.5% -4.1% -8.8%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.9% 7.6% 1.2% 3.2%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.7% -9.7% -3.2% -5.0%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -1.6% 1.5% -0.7%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.1% 13.9% 1.8% 7.3%

    TV Pacing Charts Q2

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.5% 3.4% 12.0% 5.8%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.0% 2.7% 15.7% 7.6%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.1% 2.5% 11.0% 1.9%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.8% 1.2% 11.8% 5.5%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.3% 1.8% 11.1% 5.7%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.6% -1.4% 4.0% 1.6%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.0% -4.7% 3.5% -2.0%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.6% -19.0% -13.3% -16.5%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.1% -0.6% 7.2% 2.2%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.8% 20.8% 24.3% 17.2%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.1% 0.0% 13.9% 6.6%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.7% -0.1% 12.0% 4.8%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.3% 7.5% 9.8% 4.8%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.2% 9.8% 16.7% 9.8%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.9% -0.1% 12.3% 4.4%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.3% -4.4% 7.1% -1.2%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.5% 2.1% 6.6% 4.7%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.5% 1.5% 9.5% 6.4%

       

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.7% 5.2% 11.3% 9.0%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.8% 4.7% 9.7% 10.6%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.6% 20.1% 17.2% 13.1%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.2% 7.1% 22.9% 12.7%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.5% -16.3% -6.4% -6.1%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.9% -9.4% 5.9% -2.6%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.6% 10.6% 3.2% 7.8%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.2% -14.8% -8.5% -12.5%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.9% -19.8% -13.1% -17.7%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 18.4% 31.2% 35.8% 27.1%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 36.5% 14.1% 18.1% 23.9%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 33.4% 18.7% 26.4% 26.6%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.5% 0.6% 5.8% 1.9%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.2% 8.6% 12.2% 8.9%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.1% -6.6% 5.9% 1.2%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.9% 13.3% 17.2% 13.0%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 34.8% 16.8% 15.8% 23.3%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.4% -6.3% 11.8% 2.7%

       

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.0% 3.8% 11.8% 6.5%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.9% 3.0% 14.6% 8.1%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.7% 5.9% 12.2% 4.2%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.0% 2.2% 13.5% 6.8%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.9% -2.7% 7.2% 2.9%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.8% -3.0% 4.3% 0.8%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.1% -1.3% 3.4% 0.2%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -15.8% -18.1% -12.3% -15.6%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.1% -4.4% 3.4% -1.7%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.6% 23.0% 26.6% 19.3%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 12.6% 2.7% 14.7% 9.8%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.5% 3.4% 14.7% 8.9%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.1% 5.8% 8.9% 4.1%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.7% 9.5% 15.6% 9.6%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.4% -1.5% 11.0% 3.8%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.0% -1.6% 8.8% 1.0%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.8% 4.4% 8.0% 7.5%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.8% -0.3% 10.0% 5.6%