ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -7.6%
Q2 -39.6%
Q3 -19.1%
Q4 -5.3%
April May June Q2
Local -45.9% -39.6% -29.0% -38.0%
Natl -48.4% -45.2% -37.0% -43.3%
L+N -46.6% -41.2% -31.3% -39.6%
July Aug Sept Q3
Local -25.0% -20.0% -10.0% -18.4%
Natl -30.0% -25.0% -15.0% -23.4%
L+N -25.7% -20.7% -10.7% -19.1%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q2 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

The quarterly pace improved by another 0.7 points this week, with the last days of May adding 0.8 points. But the most exciting thing we can report, is that for the first time, June pace also grew this week; adding half a point. Almost every category saw growth or at least a flattening of pace in the last week.

 

Forecast Updates

May finished 0.4 points higher than our last forecast. But more importantly, it added 4 pace points in-month, or over 10% of its business. If June were to do the same, it would finish at -23% to -26%. We’re not ready to commit to that just yet, but we’re definitely going to move up the forecast to get us closer:

 

  • -45.9% for April
  • -39.6% for May
  • -29.0% for June – up 2 points from last week
  • -38.0% for the quarter – up 1.1 points

Q2 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National pace grew by 0.9 points this last week, and like Local, we’re thrilled to be able to report gains in both months – May moved up by 1.1 points, and June up by an even bigger 1.5 points. Once more, most categories saw the growth.

Forecast Updates

Like Local, May added a bit near the end – 0.8 months. This means the month added 3.4 points from the 4th  on, and 13% of the business. If June follows this same pattern, it will finish in the range of -31% to -33%. As in Local, we will take it slowly and move it up just a bit, but we look forward to going higher in the coming weeks if pace continues to improve. Here are our forecasts this week:

  • -48.4% for April
  • -45.2% for May 
  • -37.0% for June – up 3 points
  • -43.3% for the quarter – up 1.4 points

 

Q2 Local + National

The trajectory is slow and gradual, but things are clearly moving up, which we couldn’t be happier about. We do tend to see cancellations at the beginning of the month, so it’s possible we’ll see a little wobble in pace this week, but hopefully more of the same monthly growth we saw in May. Even more substantial improvements would be even better.

You are likely still seeing low sellouts in June, particularly this week and next week, but if more money is coming back, it’s likely that the end of the month could get tighter. Front-loading as much business as you can will allow you to maximize on the opportunities in the back half of the month, particularly in those time periods that are starting to see strong demand. You can start pushing pricing in these areas but will need to stay aggressive in others.

Today our core Q2 forecast moves up 1.1 points to -39.6%.

Q3 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q3 Local pace continue to decline, dropping 2.3 points this week.

July lost 1.3 points, August lost 1.9, and September 2.6.

 

Forecast Updates

We have been saying for a few weeks now that we can’t trust the pace charts for forecasting Q3 in this crazy time, but that what happens in Q2 will tell us what might happen in Q3. And Q2 is doing good things right now and is on track to be even better. This bodes well for Q3.

Until we go up more significantly in our June forecast, we will continue to hold our Q3 forecasts below. They may prove to be 5 points too low, and the rumored return of sports could push things even further. We cannot wait to make those changes.

 

  • -25.0% for July
  • -20.0% for August
  • -10.0% for September
  • -18.4% for the quarter

Q3 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National had a positive pace week, gaining 0.7 points. The growth was almost entirely in July, which added 1.8 points. August, meanwhile, only picked up 0.1, and September lost 0.2. Most categories experienced that July growth.

Forecast Updates

National pacing, in particular, is incredibly behind, clearly quite late, but the July growth suggests that it’s starting to come. Still, the forecasts below show the improvement from June that we are looking for, and we’ll hold them for now:

  • -30.0% for July
  • -25.0% for August
  • -15% for September
  • -23.4% for the quarter

 

Q3 Local + National

We are absolutely moving in the right direction with returning business, but it’s clear that some customers are struggling to open up or respond to inventory challenges, and this does hold back some of the returning dollars. But they are returning, and there are a lot of exciting rumors surrounding sports that could really ramp up the pace. We encourage you to remain cautiously optimistic – expect that Q3 will be better than Q2, but it won’t be “back to normal”. As the dollars return – and especially as political spending heats up – keep the high demand programs priced higher but remember that some dayparts are still struggling to catch on, and demand will be low for some time.

We continue to forecast the quarter to finish at -19.1%. But rates and demand won’t be down 19% across every piece of inventory; and budgets won’t be down exactly 19% across every advertiser. Now more than ever, stay close to your customers’ needs and find ways to make this difficult situation work for both of you. And be ready to respond quickly as the money starts rolling in.

Employee Spotlight: Anita O’Neill

Senior Pricing Consultant

Anita O’Neill started her tenure with ShareBuilders in 2015 and currently serves as a Senior Pricing Consultant. She’s a graduate of Bradley University and worked in consulting for several high profile technology firms before joining our team.

Anita is an avid outdoors-person who enjoys hiking and her daily swims in the lake (weather permitting, of course; she’s in Illinois, after all.) She also likes “puttering” in her flower garden and taking in beautiful sunsets. When she has the opportunity, Anita loves to tackle the open road, taking trips to check out the hidden gems in America’s small towns.

Anita resides in Central Illinois with her large but lovable Goldendoodle, Duncan, and loves spending time with her two grown children, Taylor and Keenan. We’re thrilled to have her on our team!

TV Pacing Charts Q2

      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.9% -39.6% -27.4% -38.4%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.4% -36.0% -27.0% -36.0%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.2% -42.1% -26.5% -40.1%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.1% -36.3% -20.8% -34.3%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.0% -38.8% -26.1% -38.1%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.9% -46.2% -36.7% -45.3%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.0% -46.6% -38.6% -45.3%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.1% -50.1% -44.2% -49.2%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.6% -38.1% -24.5% -36.9%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -54.5% -47.4% -38.3% -47.3%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.1% -39.0% -23.7% -36.2%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.5% -36.0% -22.6% -34.7%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.2% -40.7% -31.9% -40.5%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.6% -46.2% -33.5% -44.0%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.2% -40.1% -26.1% -38.3%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.7% -39.6% -20.0% -37.5%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.1% -32.0% -24.7% -33.0%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.4% -45.2% -35.8% -43.4%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.9% -47.2% -36.8% -44.1%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.5% -45.0% -38.0% -44.2%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.6% -42.6% -26.6% -40.2%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.6% -45.6% -36.7% -43.4%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -49.7% -46.2% -38.6% -45.0%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.0% -44.8% -48.8% -46.9%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.1% -47.4% -40.0% -45.9%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.9% -47.7% -33.9% -45.6%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -49.5% -44.4% -37.8% -44.1%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.2% -43.5% -36.2% -40.5%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.0% -45.6% -34.9% -43.4%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.4% -43.9% -37.1% -42.9%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.3% -48.5% -41.2% -48.0%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.8% -45.2% -35.4% -43.0%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.5% -40.1% -30.4% -39.0%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.7% -41.5% -29.5% -38.0%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.6% -41.2% -30.0% -39.9%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -44.5% -39.0% -29.8% -38.1%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.3% -43.0% -30.1% -41.3%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.9% -38.1% -22.5% -36.0%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.2% -41.2% -30.2% -40.0%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.3% -46.2% -37.3% -45.2%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.9% -45.9% -43.0% -45.9%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -52.2% -49.3% -43.0% -48.2%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -40.8% -27.3% -39.4%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.0% -46.5% -38.1% -46.3%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.6% -40.4% -27.8% -37.5%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -44.0% -38.7% -26.1% -37.1%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.2% -41.8% -33.7% -41.3%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.5% -47.0% -36.1% -45.3%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.7% -41.8% -29.4% -39.8%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.9% -39.8% -22.8% -37.9%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.4% -34.3% -25.9% -34.2%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

    TV Pacing Charts Q3

        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.4% -19.9% -12.6% -18.6%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.8% -15.6% -8.6% -14.0%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.0% -19.8% -11.0% -18.3%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.8% -19.1% -14.8% -18.7%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.4% -19.9% -14.6% -20.8%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.1% -18.8% -3.4% -14.7%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.1% -26.9% -11.2% -23.4%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -36.2% -38.9% -30.9% -35.6%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.9% -21.1% -16.2% -19.8%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -31.0% -27.0% -16.8% -25.5%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.4% -13.5% -4.2% -12.9%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -15.7% -15.2% -10.3% -13.8%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -30.3% -28.0% -17.9% -26.0%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.1% -23.5% -12.9% -21.8%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.1% -19.6% -12.5% -18.4%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -15.9% -15.4% -11.1% -14.2%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.9% -17.9% -13.0% -17.0%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.6% -39.9% -36.1% -39.3%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -32.3% -32.0% -24.5% -29.9%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.1% -37.3% -37.4% -39.1%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -36.3% -39.6% -35.0% -37.0%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.7% -50.2% -46.9% -50.3%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.4% -26.8% -15.4% -29.1%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.0% -57.2% -44.5% -51.9%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.2% -45.9% -49.5% -48.9%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.4% -37.3% -41.0% -41.6%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -37.1% -34.4% -31.5% -34.4%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -35.2% -36.3% -29.6% -33.8%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.6% -36.4% -34.1% -36.4%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.4% -48.3% -40.2% -45.2%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.6% -41.8% -29.5% -40.7%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -44.8% -42.0% -44.2% -43.7%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.1% -38.2% -44.2% -42.7%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.9% -33.4% -27.9% -27.3%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.4% -24.2% -17.5% -23.0%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.6% -18.7% -11.5% -16.9%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.1% -23.7% -17.1% -22.9%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.7% -23.3% -18.4% -22.2%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -32.4% -26.8% -22.6% -27.6%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.4% -20.4% -5.7% -17.5%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -35.0% -36.5% -20.1% -31.6%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -39.8% -40.6% -35.7% -38.9%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.9% -24.2% -20.8% -24.1%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -32.3% -28.6% -20.3% -27.5%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.4% -17.9% -9.4% -17.0%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.7% -19.2% -14.5% -17.9%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -34.3% -33.9% -24.2% -31.3%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -32.0% -27.9% -16.9% -26.3%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.9% -24.5% -19.6% -23.9%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.7% -19.6% -17.1% -19.6%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.1% -20.7% -15.5% -18.8%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%