ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -7.6%
Q2 -36.7%
Q3 -19.2%
Q4 -5.3%
April May June Q2
Local -45.9% -39.6% -22.8% -35.2%
Natl -48.4% -45.5% -30.5% -40.6%
L+N -46.6% -41.2% -25.0% -36.7%
July Aug Sept Q3
Local -23.0% -18.0% -12.0% -17.9%
Natl -30.0% -25.0% -15.0% -23.7%
L+N -24.5% -19.6% -12.7% -19.2%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q2 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

As the quarter comes to a close, we continue to see small upticks in pacing, with the quarter picking up 0.3 with June’s addition of half a point.

 

Forecast Updates

We might see an additional couple tenths of a point added with next week’s 2 days of broadcast Q3 falling into calendar June, but for now, we’re just going to move June’s forecast up two-tenths of a point to match current pace:

 

  • -45.9% for April
  • -39.6% for May
  • -22.8% for June – up 0.2 points
  • -35.2% for the quarter – up 0.2 points

Q2 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

A 0.9-point improvement for June moved the quarter up 0.4 points.

Forecast Updates

June would have to pick up half a point to get to last week’s forecast, but with Q3 business about to hit, some with 6/29 starts, we think it can happen. So, no change this week:

  • -48.4% for April
  • -45.5% for May
  • -30.5% for June – flat to last week
  • -40.6% for the quarter – up 0.1 point

 

Q2 Local + National

We are coming to the end of a serious rollercoaster of a quarter. Things ended a lot stronger than they started, that is for sure, but we still have a long way to go to return to anything that feels normal. All we can do is hope that the rate of growth continues going into Q3 and beyond

June is finishing around -25% in Core, and the quarter at -36.7%. How Q3 grows from here depends on a crazy mix of how advertisers place Q3 buys to deal with inventory shortages, reopening uncertainty, a possibly virtual back-to-school, serious doubts about returning sports, and all the other unprecedented things we find ourselves dealing with these days. We are optimistic for growth, but the wild ride certainly isn’t over yet.

Q3 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

You can see evidence of a bumpy ride in Q3 Local pace, which moved up and down over the last week but ultimately fell by 0.6 points Monday to Monday.

The good news is that July and August only lost 0.3 and 0.4 points respectively, much less than the 1.2-point decline seen in September. This suggests money is starting to place earlier in the quarter. September might be later with late NFL buys and some advertisers treating the latter part of the month like Q4.

 

Forecast Updates

This week and next week should tell us a lot about Q3, as heavy amounts of business will be booking for next week’s start of the quarter or at least pre-July 4th. So, while pace may be falling today, it can start to move in the other direction quickly.

At this point, if June is finishing down 22.8% or so, we like our forecasts as they are below. We just don’t have any information to tell us otherwise, but post-July 4th, we’ll start to pay more attention to pacing. If things remain behind as they are now, we will be coming down. Until then, we’re sticking with:

 

  • -23.0% for July – flat to last week
  • -18.0% for August – flat to last week
  • -12.0% for September – flat to last week
  • -17.9% for the quarter – flat to last week

Q3 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

While Local has continued to trend down this week, we are thrilled to report a 2.2-point growth week on the National side.

July picked up 2.7 points, August 1.8, and September 2.0.

Most categories saw growth, though many took a dip earlier this week, we hope due to calendar differences.

Forecast Updates

We will admit we have been pretty nervous about National. All our instincts tell us it’s late and it will get worse before it gets better, but things were getting pretty bad! So, we’re thrilled with the increases this week, and look forward to much more of the same in the coming weeks.

As we mentioned last week, if we were to forecast based on current pacing, we would be looking at a -40% or worse Q3, and we just don’t see that with June down only -30%. So, we will hold these forecasts another week or so:

  • -30.0% for July – flat to last week
  • -25.0% for August – flat to last week
  • -15% for September – flat to last week
  • -23.7% for the quarter – flat to last week

 

Q3 Local + National

On the other hand, there is money coming out, or not returning: Ford, FCA, and other Tier 2 autos are experiencing what we hope are short-lived inventory shortages and cutting back or eliminating spending altogether. Furniture retailers have also experienced supply chain issues. These are short-term problems if inventory levels begin to stabilize, but they are certainly evidence that we’re not out of the woods yet.

We know that many of you with big senate races or toss-ups for the presidential election are already seeing huge amounts of political, while others aren’t seeing much at all. But all signs point to big political spending, and in a pretty tight timeframe. That can be nerve-racking when you are trying to attract core dollars and also plan for political. Stay aggressive in July, front load, cancel, or move out whatever junk you know will get bumped out, and that will keep you rates from going too high too quickly. When you have a time period with strong demand, keep the pricing strong, but keep your rates competitive on the rest. However, do not just set low pricing targets… actually use the lower rates on the rate card! You can manipulate the PT’s all you want, but the rates on the rate card are what actually matter.

The smartest thing you can do is to stay on top of it! Be ready to make adjustments as soon as you get wind of a big political buy coming down the pike or a cancellation from a retailer. Adjust your PT’s, adjust your rates, and do it all again the next week.

For now, we are holding our combined core forecast at -19.2%. We will follow our own advice and adjust that as soon as new information tells us we should. You will be the first people we tell.

What’s The Story, Inventory?

Though there is still a large amount of inventory sitting in Too Open, we are finally seeing some significant change for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Nearly all dayparts have experienced major transitions from Too Open to On Target and Too Tight. Early news is seeing the largest change in On Target inventory, going from 6% to 17% over the past month. Daytime and Early Finge have seen the larget transition to Too Tight, both increasing 19%. Prime Access and Late Fringe experienced the least amount of change, however, Prime Access had the most inventory On Target and Too Tight, previously. Overall, let’s enjoy this slow and steady recovery, but know we are not out of the woods. There is still plenty of work to be done and we don’t know what the future holds. 

TV Pacing Charts Q2

      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.9% -39.6% -22.8% -36.6%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.4% -36.3% -21.4% -33.9%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.0% -42.3% -22.6% -38.6%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.1% -36.3% -19.2% -33.3%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.0% -38.4% -21.6% -36.2%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.9% -46.1% -30.5% -43.1%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.0% -46.9% -30.5% -42.6%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.1% -50.6% -34.7% -46.2%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.6% -38.1% -19.3% -35.1%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -54.5% -47.5% -28.8% -43.9%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.9% -39.0% -22.6% -35.2%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.5% -36.0% -21.3% -33.9%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.2% -40.9% -24.6% -38.1%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.5% -46.7% -27.4% -41.9%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.1% -39.9% -22.4% -36.7%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.7% -39.7% -20.4% -36.9%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.1% -32.0% -19.0% -31.1%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.4% -45.5% -31.0% -41.8%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.9% -47.7% -35.6% -43.5%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.5% -45.4% -30.1% -41.8%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.6% -42.8% -22.7% -38.7%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.6% -45.9% -30.9% -41.4%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -49.6% -46.6% -34.7% -43.6%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.0% -45.0% -41.7% -44.5%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.0% -47.8% -34.9% -44.2%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.9% -48.3% -29.8% -44.3%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -49.5% -44.7% -32.7% -42.3%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.2% -44.2% -32.3% -39.3%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.0% -45.4% -34.8% -42.9%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.4% -44.3% -26.6% -39.6%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.3% -48.9% -32.8% -45.1%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.8% -45.3% -30.4% -41.2%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.5% -40.1% -28.2% -38.0%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.8% -42.2% -30.0% -38.2%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.6% -41.4% -25.3% -38.2%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -44.5% -39.3% -25.4% -36.5%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.2% -43.2% -25.0% -39.6%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.9% -38.1% -20.2% -34.8%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.2% -41.1% -25.0% -38.1%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.1% -46.3% -31.9% -43.3%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.9% -46.2% -35.2% -43.4%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -52.2% -49.7% -34.8% -45.6%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -41.0% -22.4% -37.7%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.0% -46.7% -30.0% -43.4%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.4% -40.6% -25.6% -36.4%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -44.0% -38.6% -25.3% -36.4%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.3% -42.1% -25.3% -38.6%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.5% -47.4% -29.3% -43.0%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.6% -41.7% -25.1% -38.1%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.9% -39.8% -22.4% -37.2%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.4% -34.4% -21.7% -32.7%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

    TV Pacing Charts Q3

        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.3% -23.2% -17.2% -22.2%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.7% -17.5% -11.5% -17.5%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.7% -26.5% -19.3% -24.4%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.7% -18.5% -15.5% -18.4%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -30.4% -27.3% -20.4% -26.4%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -31.0% -29.0% -19.7% -27.2%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.2% -24.1% -13.6% -22.7%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -33.6% -36.6% -30.6% -33.8%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.0% -24.1% -21.7% -24.1%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -33.5% -31.9% -27.6% -31.3%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.0% -18.6% -9.3% -17.9%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.7% -20.3% -13.1% -18.3%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.1% -26.3% -19.5% -24.7%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.0% -27.3% -19.7% -25.8%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.3% -24.8% -16.7% -22.9%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.3% -20.0% -17.9% -19.9%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.1% -17.0% -14.4% -17.8%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.4% -42.6% -39.0% -40.7%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -35.7% -37.9% -31.2% -35.3%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -35.9% -34.7% -34.2% -34.9%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.3% -44.1% -39.2% -40.6%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -44.3% -46.4% -41.7% -44.1%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.3% -44.6% -40.0% -44.0%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -49.0% -54.9% -46.4% -50.7%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -57.2% -59.1% -63.4% -59.7%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.2% -44.4% -45.0% -45.3%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.5% -39.5% -36.3% -39.3%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -34.3% -37.0% -36.0% -35.7%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -39.3% -41.3% -36.5% -39.1%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.9% -47.3% -39.4% -42.1%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.3% -47.5% -39.1% -44.9%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -35.0% -37.8% -39.2% -37.2%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.4% -40.4% -42.0% -40.1%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.2% -42.8% -36.8% -39.4%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.3% -28.8% -23.2% -27.3%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.0% -22.8% -16.1% -21.7%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.1% -28.7% -23.3% -27.2%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.4% -25.9% -21.8% -24.4%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -34.3% -33.1% -27.2% -31.7%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -34.9% -33.2% -25.0% -31.6%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -35.2% -36.0% -25.0% -32.7%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.7% -43.7% -41.5% -42.0%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -31.3% -29.6% -27.4% -29.6%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -35.8% -34.3% -30.3% -33.7%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.3% -22.9% -15.7% -22.1%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.2% -25.9% -18.9% -23.5%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -30.7% -33.8% -26.4% -30.5%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -34.2% -33.6% -25.6% -31.5%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.6% -28.4% -23.0% -26.9%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.5% -25.5% -23.8% -25.0%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.0% -23.7% -19.7% -23.0%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%