ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -7.6%
Q2 -37.0%
Q3 -19.0%
Q4 -5.3%
April May June Q2
Local -45.9% -39.6% -23.0% -35.4%
Natl -48.4% -45.5% -30.5% -40.7%
L+N -46.6% -41.4% -25.2% -37.0%
July Aug Sept Q3
Local -23.0% -18.0% -12.0% -17.9%
Natl -30.0% -25.0% -15.0% -23.7%
L+N -24.2% -19.4% -12.6% -19.0%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q2 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Local Q2 pace climbed half a point this week thanks to June’s 1.4-point improvement.

The South Central and South Atlantic regions, which have so far outpaced the other regions, have seen pace level off in the last week. They’re still amongst the best, but the later-to-open regions are now the ones seeing the bigger improvements.

 

Forecast Updates

Once again we see June a bit stronger than we had hoped, and will raise its forecast slightly. This brings our quarter’s forecasts to:

  • -45.9% for April
  • -39.6% for May
  • -23.0% for June – up 1.5 points
  • -35.4% for the quarter – up 0.8 points

Q2 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

The quarter picked up 1.1 points this week with June’s 3.3-point jump. As in Local, the South has leveled off as the other regions have ramped up.

Forecast Updates

We’re very happy to have been too conservative with our June forecast, as it means there was far more improvement than we once expected. It’s possible we’re still a little low, as June might have a bigger late-month uptick with the 2 days of broadcast Q3 falling into the month seeing money come in over the next few days. That money may be less than a year ago, but last year had no June/Q3 crossover days, so that might balance things out.
Today our forecasts sit at:

  • -48.4% for April
  • -45.5% for May
  • -30.5% for June – up 3.5 points
  • -40.7% for the quarter – up 1.5 points

 

Q2 Local + National

We continue to see more and more returning June business. Late Q3 buys with 6/29 starts will give us a nice extra boost, especially since the quarter started on 7/1 last year. With the June forecast increase on the Local and National side, we now see the quarter finishing 0.9 points stronger at -37.0% for Core.

Of course, none of us are terribly concerned with pricing June now, but knowing where June finishes is our most reliable estimate for Q3, at least until more Q3 business hits the books.

Q3 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q3 Local pace continues to drop, falling 1.6 points this week.

July lost 1.5 points, August 1.3, and September 1.9.

All categories are experiencing declines.

 

Forecast Updates

We’re in a tricky time for forecasting the future quarter, as there’s just barely enough money in to start to really tell us where things should finish, but not quite enough yet to truly rely upon. Normally Q3 has somewhere between 56-58% of the quarter booked 2 weeks out, but if this year were to be at the same point, each month would be about 5 points softer than our current forecasts below. Perhaps a -23% quarter is a good worst-case scenario, but it means that as a quarter there is no improvement from our -23% forecast for June. Between continued returning business and sports (though of course there is a lot of uncertainty here), we really do think it should be better. So, despite indications from June that our forecasts are actually a little low, we’re going to hold at these estimates:

 

  • -23.0% for July – flat to last week
  • -18.0% for August – flat to last week
  • -12.0% for September – flat to last week
  • -17.9% for the quarter – flat to last week

Q3 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

After somewhat steady pacing over the last couple of weeks, National fell more this week, losing 3.1 points.

July lost 1.3, August 3.7, and August 4.8, with all categories declining.

Forecast Updates

If Local is perhaps 5 points late, National is a lot later, considering that the quarter had as little as 43% of the money booked this time last year, but as much as 58% in other even political years. Even if this year is as late as 2019 was, that means the quarter is perhaps a full 20 points weaker than our current estimate, which would put it on track to a -44% finish. That’s almost as bad as April and May turned out, and almost 15 points worse than June. We just don’t see it that low. So, we’re going to hold our forecasts here as well, as they show very gradual improvement from June. We should know a lot more in a couple of weeks, but we’ll stay here today:

  • -30.0% for July – flat to last week
  • -25.0% for August – flat to last week
  • -15% for September – flat to last week
  • -23.4% for the quarter – flat to last week

 

Q3 Local + National

So, you’re probably getting a little nervous as you watch your own station or group’s pacing decline every day. We are too. But we have very little reason to believe that the improvements we saw from May to June won’t continue from June to July, and so on. Yes, there will be some risk from political displacement, but barring a tragic return to shutdowns, we just don’t see how core advertisers won’t continue to find a way to spend again as more retailers open up, as inventories come back online, and so on. We’re not at all expecting a return to “normal” anytime soon, but we have to believe in continued slow growth.

Of course, there is a lot of uncertainty, and a lot of that surrounds sports. Our forecasts assume NFL and college football, in particular, will go on as scheduled. On the other hand, we are not building in the uptick from NHL, MLB, NBA and more, which is good, since the stories surrounding the return of those are decidedly mixed. However, should things turn out badly, we are unlikely to need to lower our forecasts. The opportunity for change is to raise the estimates, should the players and owners of the various leagues make it work.
So with that, we are changing nothing and will hold our forecast for Q3 Core at -19%. The next 2 weeks leading up to the July 4th holiday should tell us a lot. We hope it’s all good news!

Efficio Spotlight: Tracking Productivity

ShareBuilders and Efficio Logo

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TV Pacing Charts Q2

      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.9% -39.6% -23.2% -36.9%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.4% -36.2% -21.8% -34.2%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.0% -42.2% -22.8% -38.7%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.1% -36.4% -19.2% -33.4%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.0% -38.4% -22.2% -36.8%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.9% -46.1% -30.8% -43.3%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.0% -46.9% -32.0% -43.2%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.1% -50.6% -37.1% -47.0%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.6% -38.0% -19.7% -35.4%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -54.5% -47.5% -30.3% -44.5%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.9% -39.3% -22.5% -35.5%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.5% -36.0% -21.3% -33.9%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.2% -40.9% -25.1% -38.2%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.6% -46.7% -28.7% -42.4%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.1% -40.1% -23.0% -37.1%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.7% -39.5% -19.5% -36.7%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.1% -32.0% -18.7% -31.1%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.4% -45.6% -31.9% -42.1%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.9% -47.7% -35.1% -43.5%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.5% -45.4% -31.1% -42.1%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.6% -42.8% -24.8% -39.3%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.6% -45.9% -32.2% -42.0%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -49.7% -46.6% -34.7% -43.7%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.0% -45.0% -44.9% -45.6%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.1% -47.8% -34.3% -44.2%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.9% -48.3% -29.1% -44.2%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -49.5% -44.7% -34.8% -43.0%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.2% -44.3% -33.5% -39.7%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.0% -45.4% -34.8% -43.0%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.4% -44.3% -28.7% -40.3%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.3% -48.9% -34.0% -45.7%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.8% -45.3% -31.1% -41.5%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.5% -40.1% -27.9% -38.0%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.8% -42.2% -31.1% -38.6%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.6% -41.4% -25.9% -38.5%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -44.5% -39.2% -25.6% -36.6%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.2% -43.2% -25.3% -39.7%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.9% -38.2% -20.8% -35.1%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.2% -41.1% -26.1% -38.6%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.3% -46.3% -32.1% -43.4%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.9% -46.2% -37.5% -44.2%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -52.2% -49.7% -36.3% -46.2%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -40.9% -22.5% -38.0%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.0% -46.7% -31.7% -44.0%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.5% -40.9% -26.0% -36.8%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -44.0% -38.6% -25.3% -36.5%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.3% -42.1% -26.4% -38.9%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.5% -47.4% -30.6% -43.5%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.6% -41.8% -25.8% -38.5%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.9% -39.6% -21.7% -37.0%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.4% -34.4% -21.8% -32.8%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

    TV Pacing Charts Q3

        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.0% -22.8% -16.0% -21.6%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.4% -14.6% -6.9% -13.4%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.4% -26.1% -19.7% -24.6%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.1% -20.5% -16.0% -20.3%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.4% -25.5% -17.8% -24.7%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.4% -28.6% -18.9% -25.9%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.0% -27.0% -14.1% -23.1%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -34.9% -36.7% -30.6% -34.3%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.1% -23.1% -19.3% -22.7%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -30.0% -27.8% -20.2% -26.4%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.2% -18.7% -7.5% -17.0%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.6% -21.5% -15.1% -19.9%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.3% -26.0% -19.7% -24.7%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.6% -27.3% -18.9% -25.8%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.0% -24.3% -16.4% -22.5%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.6% -19.8% -16.5% -19.1%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.9% -16.2% -11.7% -16.2%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.1% -44.4% -41.0% -42.9%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.1% -40.0% -35.2% -37.9%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.3% -41.3% -40.8% -41.5%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.0% -46.1% -41.2% -42.8%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -49.9% -47.2% -43.0% -46.7%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.9% -39.8% -30.6% -37.0%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.4% -55.4% -47.3% -50.6%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -55.7% -53.1% -58.9% -55.8%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -49.7% -43.4% -47.8% -47.2%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.2% -38.3% -36.9% -37.8%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.0% -47.1% -42.8% -45.0%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.4% -43.6% -38.4% -41.3%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.6% -46.7% -38.6% -41.5%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.0% -47.1% -37.6% -44.6%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.0% -43.2% -47.0% -44.3%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.7% -42.8% -43.9% -42.7%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -36.0% -42.5% -34.6% -37.8%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.4% -28.4% -22.3% -26.9%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.0% -20.5% -13.0% -18.9%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -31.0% -30.0% -25.0% -28.8%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.3% -27.4% -22.2% -26.1%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -34.6% -31.2% -25.0% -30.6%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -30.7% -31.2% -21.5% -28.4%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -32.4% -36.7% -24.0% -31.7%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.4% -41.0% -38.7% -40.1%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -31.3% -27.9% -25.7% -28.5%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -32.1% -30.7% -25.1% -29.5%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.1% -25.1% -15.5% -23.3%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.7% -26.9% -20.4% -24.8%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -30.4% -32.6% -25.7% -29.8%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -34.3% -32.8% -24.1% -30.9%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -30.2% -29.2% -24.3% -28.1%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.6% -25.4% -22.6% -24.6%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.4% -22.3% -16.6% -20.9%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%