ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -7.6%
Q2 -37.9%
Q3 -18.9%
Q4 -5.3%
April May June Q2
Local -45.9% -39.5% -24.5% -36.2%
Natl -48.4% -45.5% -34.0% -42.2%
L+N -46.6% -41.3% -27.2% -37.9%
July Aug Sept Q3
Local -23.0% -18.0% -12.0% -17.8%
Natl -30.0% -25.0% -15.0% -23.4%
L+N -24.2% -19.3% -12.5% -18.9%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q2 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Another week of growth for the quarter, with a 1-point gain led by June’s big 2.8-point jump. Every category but one was flat or up, and most were up nicely.

 

Forecast Updates

We continue to be thrilled by the pacing improvements, with this past week’s being the biggest one-week jump since this craziness began. Now that we’re 10 days into the month we should see more adds than losses, and if May is any indication, we may be on track to a -22% to -23% finish. We’re going to keep it conservative and go a little lower at -24.5%, which only requires us to maintain current pace.
Here are this week’s forecasts:

 

  • -45.9% for April
  • -39.5% for May
  • -24.5% for June – up 4.5 points 
  • -36.2% for the quarter – up 1.8 points

Q2 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National picked up half a point in the quarter thanks to the 1.6 points added to June. As in Local, the growth was widespread, though our smallest markets did see a small dip.

Forecast Updates

The May pacing trends point to a very tight finish for June in the range of -30% to -29.5%. We’re going to go with a softer estimate, again requiring that pacing only be maintained, not gained. This brings our forecasts to:

  • -48.4% for April
  • -45.5% for May
  • -34.0% for June – up 3 points
  • -42.2% for the quarter – up 1.1 points

 

Q2 Local + National

It’s incredibly satisfying to be sitting 10 days into the month of June and see only upside from here. Sure, a -27% core finish for the month is still horrendous if we were living in normal times, but these times are anything but normal, and -27% is a big improvement over May’s -41% and April’s -46%. The month-to-month gains are bigger now, and we have every reason to believe that – barring any more virus-related surprises – they will only continue to jump more, especially with returning sports.

We find ourselves more superstitious than usual these days, embarrassingly worried about jinxing our improving luck. We know some of you have felt that way as well – we’ve done a lot of “knocking on wood” on calls these last couple of weeks! We don’t know what’s out there, what else could go wrong, but we never do. We’ll just keeping taking it one week at a time, and this week we see the quarter finishing at -37.9%, 1.7 points stronger than our last forecast. Fingers crossed that it’s even higher than that!

Q3 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

It’s not pretty, but Q3 Local pace continues to trend down, losing 1.4 points this week.

July lost 1.1 points, August 1.6, and September 1.5.

Our strongest stations are ABC’s and MyNets, the South Atlantic and South Central regions, and our smaller 66+ markets.

 

Forecast Updates

We’re feeling a bit more optimistic about the Local trajectory and want to raise July and August a couple points each. On the other hand, continued talk of huge political tells us to drop September a bit, so we’re going to knock that down 2 points. Our forecasts are now:

 

  • -23.0% for July – up 2 points from last week
  • -18.0% for August – up 2 points from last week
  • -12.0% for September – down 2 points from last week
  • -17.8% for the quarter – up 0.6 points from last week

Q3 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Like last week, Q3 National isn’t dropping as much as it was a few weeks back, though it did lost half a point this week.

July lost just 0.2 points, August 0.8, and September only 0.1.

As in Local, ABC’s and MyNets, as well as our 66+ markets are stronger, but the Northeast takes the regional lead away from the South.

Forecast Updates

We’re about to enter what is traditionally the most active booking period for Q3, where the percentage of the quarter booked more than doubles between now and right before the July 4th holiday. Hold on, because our bumpy ride will continue – with this year expected to be later than ever pacing will probably drop further before it grows. Don’t worry too much about where your pacing percentages sit; worry more about what you see pending.

When we hear about cutbacks in spending we hear about it more on the National side, with Tier 2 autos and retail dominating the reductions. As inventories come back up, as stores figure out how to open up, and as consumers get their jobs back, we’re hopeful we’ll see spending ramp up, but until then, we’re holding our forecasts at these very conservative (we hope) levels:

  • -30.0% for July
  • -25.0% for August
  • -15% for September
  • -23.4% for the quarter

 

Q3 Local + National

Maybe we’re just riding a high, but we’re pretty happy with where June has gone over the last few weeks, and we have every reason to believe that July and future months will follow suit. Things ARE improving, but cancellations, budget cuts, and demands for reduced rates will certainly continue. The economy, advertisers, and consumers have all taken an unbelievable hit to our finances and our spirits over the last few months, and it will take time to climb out of it.

But if we can get most of our sporting events back, and if we can figure out how to continue to open up safely while keeping COVID infection and death rates down, we’ll start to make bigger jumps. We jumped our Local estimates up a bit today, and look forward to doing more of that. Today the Q3 forecast looks a couple tenths of a point higher at -18.9%. If June Core can finish at -27% or better, -19 is pretty good, and probably conservative.

ShareBuilder Spotlight: Grid Cards Now Exportable as an XML

ShareBuilders Logo

We’re thrilled to roll out a new, customer requested feature that we hope will come in handy as political spending starts to heat up.  If you’re not already familiar, ShareBuilder has the ability to create custom grid cards for your station, but had only been available as an Excel file previously.  You now have the ability to create that grid card as an XML file that can be uploaded into Wide Orbit Media Sales or other pre-buy systems.  This format will export a new file for each section on your grid card.  We highly recommend that you work with you consultant if you are interested in using this new feature. 

TV Pacing Charts Q2

      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.9% -39.5% -23.9% -37.2%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.4% -35.6% -21.8% -34.2%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.0% -42.2% -23.8% -39.2%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.1% -36.4% -18.9% -33.6%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.0% -38.5% -23.6% -37.3%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.9% -46.1% -32.8% -44.0%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.0% -46.9% -32.0% -43.3%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.1% -50.5% -38.7% -47.6%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.6% -37.9% -20.2% -35.6%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -54.5% -47.5% -33.3% -45.5%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.9% -38.7% -22.8% -35.4%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.5% -36.0% -20.7% -33.9%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.2% -40.9% -26.3% -39.1%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.6% -46.3% -29.9% -42.7%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.1% -40.1% -23.5% -37.3%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.7% -39.4% -19.1% -36.7%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.1% -32.1% -18.7% -31.5%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.4% -45.5% -33.6% -42.8%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.9% -47.4% -35.9% -43.9%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.5% -45.4% -34.9% -43.3%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.6% -42.9% -26.4% -40.0%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.6% -45.9% -32.5% -42.1%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -49.7% -46.6% -36.6% -44.4%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.0% -45.4% -45.9% -46.1%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -50.1% -47.8% -36.9% -45.1%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.9% -48.3% -30.6% -44.8%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -49.5% -44.6% -37.6% -43.9%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.2% -44.0% -34.6% -40.0%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.0% -45.5% -34.5% -43.1%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.4% -44.3% -32.5% -41.7%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.3% -48.7% -37.4% -46.7%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.8% -45.4% -32.1% -41.9%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -45.5% -40.1% -28.9% -38.4%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.8% -42.2% -31.4% -38.9%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Apr May Jun Q2
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.6% -41.3% -26.9% -38.9%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -44.5% -38.8% -25.7% -36.7%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.2% -43.1% -27.3% -40.4%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.9% -38.2% -21.1% -35.4%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.2% -41.1% -27.0% -39.0%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.3% -46.3% -34.0% -44.1%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -48.9% -46.3% -38.0% -44.4%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -52.2% -49.7% -38.2% -46.8%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -40.9% -23.4% -38.3%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -53.0% -46.6% -34.6% -45.0%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -42.5% -40.3% -26.6% -36.8%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -44.0% -38.6% -24.6% -36.5%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.3% -42.0% -28.5% -40.0%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -51.5% -47.1% -32.5% -44.1%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.6% -41.8% -26.5% -38.8%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.9% -39.5% -21.7% -37.1%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -40.4% -34.4% -21.9% -33.2%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

    TV Pacing Charts Q3

        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.0% -20.5% -13.7% -19.4%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.2% -16.3% -7.4% -14.1%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.1% -21.5% -14.3% -20.2%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.7% -17.8% -16.0% -18.6%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.0% -23.3% -16.2% -23.3%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.2% -23.0% -8.9% -19.3%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.1% -19.8% -2.2% -15.1%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -33.6% -36.3% -28.6% -33.1%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.8% -23.3% -18.5% -22.0%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.5% -25.0% -15.7% -23.2%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.2% -15.0% -4.8% -14.3%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.1% -19.8% -14.3% -18.2%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.8% -22.2% -14.8% -21.5%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.7% -24.4% -14.1% -22.7%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.7% -21.5% -14.8% -20.3%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.1% -14.5% -13.3% -14.7%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.5% -16.3% -11.4% -15.6%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.1% -40.0% -34.3% -38.7%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.9% -36.6% -30.2% -35.7%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -37.3% -33.6% -35.1% -35.4%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -39.4% -41.7% -31.8% -37.9%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.5% -43.9% -36.1% -42.6%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -39.6% -38.2% -25.7% -35.4%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -44.8% -54.0% -42.3% -47.9%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -52.1% -48.1% -52.4% -50.9%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -46.8% -38.6% -40.3% -42.4%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.6% -27.4% -28.7% -28.2%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -43.7% -44.6% -38.9% -42.5%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.1% -39.5% -33.7% -38.3%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.5% -43.0% -29.1% -37.3%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -47.6% -44.0% -31.1% -41.5%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.8% -40.7% -41.8% -41.4%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -32.3% -29.8% -35.5% -32.5%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -31.6% -35.6% -24.7% -30.8%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
        Jul Aug Sep Q3
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.1% -25.1% -18.4% -23.8%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.8% -20.7% -12.1% -18.6%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.1% -24.3% -19.3% -23.8%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.8% -23.4% -19.4% -23.0%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -33.1% -28.1% -21.2% -27.9%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.9% -26.5% -12.7% -22.9%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.3% -31.3% -13.8% -25.2%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.3% -39.2% -34.9% -37.6%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.1% -26.5% -22.8% -26.4%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.8% -25.6% -19.1% -24.5%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.0% -21.3% -12.2% -20.3%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.3% -24.0% -18.3% -22.3%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.3% -28.7% -19.2% -26.2%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -32.7% -29.6% -18.5% -27.6%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.9% -26.0% -21.2% -25.2%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.5% -17.6% -17.7% -18.3%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.1% -20.2% -14.0% -18.6%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%