ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -7.6%
Q2 -37.7%
Q3 -22.1%
Q4 -5.3%
July Aug Sept Q3
Local -23.0% -23.0% -17.0% -21.2%
Natl -24.5% -27.0% -21.0% -24.2%
L+N -23.4% -24.3% -18.3% -22.1%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q3 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week saw more improvement, though it was only 0.4 Monday to Monday, and pacing has slowed over the last couple of days.

July added a better 1.3 points, while August only added 0.3, and September lost half a point.

The July gains occurred across most categories, just as the September losses were fairly widespread.

 

Forecast Updates

We like our July forecast, one we’ve held for weeks at -23%. Prior year booking patterns say we are completely on track for that.

However, August and September continue to concern us, especially as more uncertainty surrounding sports swirls in the news, and then actual sports cutbacks like the NFL preseason, which could go away entirely. We have a number of stations that carry not only network games, but also local team games, and that money going away can be substantial. We need to adjust our forecasts for that, and so we’ll drop August by another 3 points. It could be as low as -25%, but we’re hopeful late business will drive it past that. This makes July and August equal, but the loss of NFL preseason would support that.

And then there’s September, which as of now is expected to have regular season NFL and post-season NBA money, among other events. While nothing at all feels certain when it comes to sports, college football seems more risky, so any disappearance of that one will push our September forecast back more. For now, we’ll still plan on the money being there, but we’ll also drop its forecast 3 points today. The worst case for it looks to be -23% as well, assuming football and other sports sticks.

In the end, our forecasts come to:

 

  • -23.0% for July – flat to last week
  • -23.0% for August – down 3 points from last week
  • -17.0% for September – down 3 points from last week
  • -21.2% for the quarter – down 1.9 points from last week

Q3 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

While Local had a lackluster week, National continued its steep improvement, picking up 5.1 points this week. That’s 16.4 points of growth within the last 2 weeks!

July added 5.2 points, August 4.4, and September 5.7.

Our largest markets really drove much of the growth in the quarter.

Forecast Updates

While there’s a lot of uncertainty out there, we’re thrilled to report that National is tracking much better than we thought it would, particularly in July, whose forecast we’re going to raise today.

We’d like to think this bodes well for July, and we think it does, but the same preseason NFL losses affect August as they do in Local. However, a lot of this preseason money, particularly for local teams, attracts more Local business than National. Furthermore, we understand there’s a lot of very late National business that might counteract any sports revenue loss. So we’re holding our August forecast.

As it always is, September is hard to read, and might really feel an impact from political displacement in many markets. We’re going to lower it a point and wait and see.
Here are our forecasts this week:

  • -24.5% for July – up 5.5 points from last week
  • -27.0% for August – flat to last week
  • -21% for September – down 1 point from last week
  • -24.2% for the quarter – up 1.7 points from last week

 

Q3 Local + National

It’s wonderful to feel pretty confident in our July forecast, but the uncertainty begins once the hottest part of the year for sports starts up in August. Of course, this August is expected to be hotter than ever with the anticipated return of baseball, the NBA, and the NHL. However, the continued rise of COVID cases in so much of the country, coupled with the challenges setting proper protocols for health in many sports leagues, plus a general hesitancy from so many players, definitely puts us at a lot of risk of revenue loss starting in August, and continuing throughout the year.

We don’t know what will happen, but we will certainly adjust our forecasts as things become more clear. What we know today is that the NFL preseason is down at least 2 weeks, so we are adjusting our August forecasts to respond. September is far less clear, so we’ll probably only make minor changes for now. This brings the quarter’s forecast down 1.1 points to -22.1%.

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I wish someone would put some money around a marketing campaign that says “you don’t get sports if you don’t wear masks”. Can someone get the networks on that, stat?!

Employee Spotlight: Marie Kaiser

Pricing Analyst

 

Marie Kaiser is a graduate of Illinois State University at Springfield with a Bachelor’s Degree in computer science. She joined ShareBuilders as a Pricing Analyst in the summer of 2019 after spending a number of years working in software development and project management. 

Marie is a self proclaimed “jack of all trades” which is fitting, given her vast variety of hobbies and interests. When she isn’t working, she enjoys baking, much to the delight of everyone in the flagship office. (Her cheesecake is legendary.) Marie also delights in creative pursuits such as soap making, lotion making, and painting. If all of that weren’t enough, Marie is also an avid reader and loves to travel. 

Marie resides in Central Illinois with her husband, two children, and a cat named Tanager. Between the two little boys and the rascal of a pet, there is never a dull moment in their blended family’s household!  We’re proud to have Marie and her myriad of talents on our team.

TV Pacing Charts Q3

      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.1% -21.7% -16.6% -20.0%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.3% -16.5% -12.1% -16.0%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.2% -23.4% -18.2% -20.7%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.9% -17.6% -13.7% -16.1%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.4% -24.7% -19.4% -23.7%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.3% -28.5% -19.8% -25.7%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.4% -25.0% -15.8% -24.3%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.6% -36.1% -32.4% -32.6%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.6% -22.2% -19.3% -21.1%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.9% -29.1% -27.4% -26.5%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.2% -16.5% -9.7% -15.6%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.3% -18.1% -11.3% -16.2%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.8% -26.0% -20.2% -23.5%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.4% -25.2% -19.2% -22.8%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.0% -21.9% -16.0% -20.2%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.9% -21.0% -19.0% -19.6%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.8% -16.7% -12.8% -16.0%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.3% -27.3% -20.9% -24.3%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.5% -24.9% -20.2% -23.5%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.0% -24.3% -20.2% -22.9%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.1% -25.9% -18.6% -22.0%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.4% -25.4% -19.9% -22.2%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -32.0% -34.5% -20.6% -29.8%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -34.8% -41.7% -24.7% -34.8%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.0% -35.7% -37.2% -33.7%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.8% -25.7% -22.9% -24.2%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.3% -20.3% -13.7% -19.5%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.7% -25.9% -26.5% -25.6%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.2% -27.7% -17.4% -24.8%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.0% -32.9% -22.8% -25.9%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.0% -33.2% -20.8% -28.1%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.7% -21.3% -20.4% -19.8%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.8% -21.5% -18.9% -20.8%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.9% -30.2% -23.1% -27.7%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.1% -23.6% -18.0% -21.4%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.0% -19.1% -14.4% -18.2%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.4% -23.7% -18.8% -21.4%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.1% -20.4% -15.2% -18.0%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.7% -24.9% -19.6% -23.2%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.8% -30.6% -20.1% -27.1%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -31.5% -32.6% -19.6% -28.7%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.4% -35.9% -34.1% -33.0%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -23.4% -20.4% -22.1%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.8% -26.1% -22.8% -24.2%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.8% -19.4% -15.0% -18.6%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.1% -21.2% -13.2% -18.8%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.9% -28.7% -21.2% -24.4%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.2% -28.0% -19.7% -24.6%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.6% -21.7% -17.5% -20.0%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.7% -21.2% -19.0% -20.0%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.8% -21.0% -15.8% -19.4%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%