ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -7.6%
Q2 -37.7%
Q3 -20.0%
Q4 -8.9%
July Aug Sept Q3
Local -19.0% -23.0% -17.0% -19.7%
Natl -17.7% -24.5% -20.0% -20.7%
L+N -18.6% -23.5% -18.0% -20.0%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q3 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Not a very eventful week for Local this week, with no week-to-week pace change for the quarter.

However, July has seen fabulous last-minute growth, picking up 0.6 points this week, while August lost 0.1 points and September 0.9.

July’s late improvement was seen across almost all categories, though NBC’s, the West, and markets 101+ softened slightly.

 

Forecast Updates

We didn’t expect July to keep on moving upwards so late into the month, but we’re thrilled to see it, as it indicates that buyers aren’t necessarily scared of spending despite inventory/supply challenges and pausing/reversals in reopening states and cities due to increasing COVID cases. This bodes well for August and September growth, removing the uncertainty surrounding returning sports, that is.

Despite this improvement and outlook for more to come, for today we’re only going to increase July’s forecast. At the very least July’s growth makes us feel better about the August and September forecasts, but best case those two months might be stronger. Sports IS a factor, however, that we can’t ignore, and because our numbers include them, we’re going to stay cautious. So our forecasts are now:

 

  • -19.0% for July – up 1 point from last week
  • -23.0% for August – flat to last week
  • -17.0% for September – flat to last week
  • -19.7% for the quarter – up 0.4 points from last week

Q3 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

While Local hasn’t seen much movement for the quarter over the last couple of weeks, National just keeps on growing, adding 0.8 points this week.

Also unlike Local, all 3 months saw improvements: July picked up 1.1 points, August 0.3, and September 1.2.

Forecast Updates

We’ve been quite happy to see the steady improvements in National across the quarter, especially as money is coming out for the cancelled NFL preseason and other sports are slow to fill against so much uncertainty. Other accounts are picking up the slack a bit, so we feel confident in taking up all three months’ forecasts this week:

  • -17.7% for July – up 1.3 points from last week
  • -24.5% for August – up 1 point from last week
  • -20% for September – up 1 point from last week
  • -20.7% for the quarter – up 1.1 points from last week

 

Q3 Local + National

Believe us, we certainly have doubts about future revenue growth and the speed of those improvements. However, we continue to see real evidence that this recent surge in COVID cases won’t necessarily set us backwards in revenue, though it probably slows the rate of that growth from what it would have been had we opened up more successfully.
Of course, the one thing most in doubt continues to be sports. Major League Baseball’s almost immediate COVID outbreak 4 days into the season most certainly does not bode well for the success of the return of other leagues. However, the specifics of how each league is handling COVID preparation and outbreak mitigation do vary, so some are probably better set up for success than others.

At the moment, we absolutely recommend continuing to sell the events occurring in September and later, along with any others happening sooner with less risk of outbreaks and cancellation, like golf, NASCAR, horse races and more. The good thing the MLB showed us is that the ratings are there for live programming. So, we look forward to seeing all the money you’ll be making off of these events.

Things are generally moving up, just more slowly than we’d like. Today, our combined core forecast is -20%, up from last week’s -20.6%.

Employee Spotlight: Matt Lee

Pricing Analyst

Matt Lee joined the ShareBuilders family in the Spring of 2019 as a Pricing Analyst. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Human Resources and Organizational Management from Illinois State University. Prior to ShareBuilders, Matt worked in a number of different industries; experience that  gives  him a unique perspective on the challenges of Broadcast Advertising.

Matt’s  favorite aspect of being a Pricing Analyst is the application of logic and reasoning skills to solve real world problems. In his down time, Matt enjoys hiking, video games, and road trips. He’s also an avid baseball fan and one day hopes to attend a game at every MLB  stadium in the league.  Matt resides in Central Illinois, and as a new homeowner, he’s embraced the challenge of home improvement projects and is slowly learning when it’s better to call in professionals.

While his DIY projects and sports fandom keep Matt pretty busy, he always makes time for family and friends.  He makes a special effort to carve out time to spend with his grandparents, with whom he is particularly close.  Matt has made a great addition to the ShareBuilders team!

TV Pacing Charts Q3

      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.8% -21.1% -18.3% -19.4%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.7% -18.7% -16.0% -17.2%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.1% -19.4% -20.3% -18.5%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.5% -16.6% -15.6% -16.7%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.3% -23.9% -18.8% -21.8%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.0% -28.4% -19.1% -23.8%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.3% -36.0% -19.2% -28.0%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.7% -31.7% -29.6% -29.6%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.4% -20.0% -20.5% -19.9%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.8% -21.9% -32.1% -24.1%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.5% -17.8% -12.4% -16.5%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.9% -22.9% -14.0% -18.4%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.8% -22.5% -17.6% -19.7%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.6% -22.4% -17.1% -19.9%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.9% -22.1% -18.1% -20.1%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.8% -20.0% -21.4% -19.2%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.6% -18.6% -18.5% -18.2%
      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.9% -23.9% -17.7% -20.0%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.6% -18.1% -15.5% -17.2%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.3% -23.1% -16.6% -19.8%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -12.5% -18.5% -16.6% -15.9%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.4% -24.1% -16.1% -18.8%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.7% -34.6% -19.0% -26.4%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.9% -44.9% -21.9% -33.5%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.5% -35.5% -34.7% -31.8%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -14.6% -18.4% -17.5% -16.7%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -15.3% -18.8% -14.1% -16.1%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.0% -23.6% -22.4% -22.7%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.9% -25.8% -16.1% -21.8%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -14.6% -30.3% -18.0% -21.4%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.9% -29.5% -15.8% -22.5%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -15.1% -22.0% -18.7% -18.7%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -12.9% -15.1% -15.0% -14.3%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.9% -21.8% -19.9% -20.6%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.5% -22.0% -18.1% -19.6%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.9% -18.5% -15.9% -17.2%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.0% -20.6% -19.2% -18.9%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.1% -17.2% -16.0% -16.4%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.3% -24.0% -17.8% -20.7%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.2% -30.4% -19.1% -24.7%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.3% -39.9% -20.3% -30.3%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.0% -33.0% -31.5% -30.4%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -19.5% -19.6% -19.0%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.4% -20.8% -26.2% -21.5%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.5% -19.6% -15.6% -18.4%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.3% -23.8% -14.6% -19.4%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.4% -25.4% -17.7% -20.3%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.0% -24.9% -16.6% -20.8%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.4% -22.0% -18.3% -19.6%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -15.8% -18.6% -19.6% -17.9%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.2% -19.5% -18.9% -18.8%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%