ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -7.6%
Q2 -37.7%
Q3 -20.6%
Q4 -8.9%
July Aug Sept Q3
Local -20.0% -23.0% -17.0% -20.1%
Natl -19.0% -25.5% -21.0% -21.8%
L+N -19.7% -23.8% -18.3% -20.6%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q3 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

The quarter gained 0.4 points this week, with July picking up 0.9 points and August half a point, while September lost 0.2.

July’s gains were seen across almost all categories, while September was flat or down very slightly for all, as well.

 

Forecast Updates

Despite the pausing or reversals in reopening states and cities around the country due to rising COVID cases, and the cancels and pushbacks that come from that, pacing continues to improve. The improvements are small, and much is still at risk when it comes to sports, but we are pleased to see much of the money stick, or for the cancels to be balanced out by other accounts.

Once again, we can increase the July forecast a bit. We’ll hold August, but if preseason NFL football goes away entirely, we’ll likely have to take it down more. At this point, many stations aren’t pushing preseason hard, so hopefully the losses, should they occur, won’t be so impactful. Certainly September will feel the loss most significantly if regular season NFL or college football disappears, but we’ll hold for today. This takes our forecasts to:

 

  • -20.0% for July – up 1 point from last week
  • -23.0% for August – flat to last week
  • -17.0% for September – flat to last week
  • -20.1% for the quarter – up 0.3 points from last week

Q3 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

More nice gains for National, as this week gained 1.3 points.

1.2 points were added in July, 1.5 in August, and 1.5 in September. Nice increases in all months!

Forecast Updates

National business has certainly seen a nice rebound since the quarter began, now pacing only a point or so behind Local. This is far better than the 20-point differential we saw a month ago. Here, we see some big ads from sports betting sites, pharmaceuticals, and more that are balancing out smaller cancels from advertisers pulling off due to supply issues.

Like Local, there is a lot of risk from as-yet-unannounced non-returning sports, but that risk is also causing advertisers to take a wait-and-see approach to buying those events. If NFL, NBA, and other events do indeed occur, we can expect big last-minute buys to drive pacing up even further in September.

As in Local, July in particular looks stronger, so we’ll take that up. August has really improved, as well, so we’ll increase it, though slowly, as there is some money at risk of cancelling. We like our September forecast today, though it might end up stronger if all works out with sports as they are currently scheduled. This takes our forecasts to:

  • -19.0% for July – up 1.5 points from last week
  • -25.5% for August – up 1.5 points from last week
  • -21% for September – flat to last week
  • -21.8% for the quarter – up 1 point from last week

 

Q3 Local + National

While the national and local news remains scary with no slowdown in COVID cases in so many parts of the country, it certainly doesn’t look like we’ll see a return to the ugliness of Q2’s revenue. Yes, things are recovering more slowly than we had hoped, but the resilience of advertisers and consumers in the face of so much loss is at least holding us steady, and actually making us slightly more optimistic about the quarter than we were last week: we’re now forecasting core to finish 0.6 points higher at -20.6%.

It still appears that August will be the weakest month, most impacted by low inventories at auto dealers and retailers. It’s also suffering from what seems to be an inevitable preseason NFL cancellation, with few other big sports in the month other than hockey and baseball. However, should inventories come back up near the end of the month as rumored, allowing us to keep NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and other sporting events, we’ll likely see a bigger September than we’re currently forecasting, though political will certainly displace some of this money.

If you’re in a market expecting or already seeing lots of September political, shore up your weaker August and protect September by seeing what you can move from September to August. The money is already big in many markets, and likely to get much, much bigger. We love to see it!

What’s The Story, Inventory?

As was the case in June, there is still a large amount of inventory sitting in Too Open, though we have seen another noticable shift. Nearly all dayparts have experienced a transition from Too Open to Volatile. Prime Access has seen the largest increase in Volatile inventory, going from 2% to 17% over the past month. Early Morning News, Daytime, and Early Finge have the largest amount of inventory On Target, though Early Morning News saw a 1% drop in On Target, month-to-month. Prime, Late News, and Late Finge remain the most open dayparts. All dayparts, with the exception of Prime, saw a slight increase in inventory on the Too Tight list. Overall, improvement has slowed a bit, but inventory sure looks better than it did a couple of months ago. With uncertainty in sports and virus cases, we must stay vigilant and change our gameplan as needed. 

TV Pacing Charts Q3

      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.0% -20.9% -17.3% -19.1%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.0% -17.9% -14.5% -16.6%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.5% -20.1% -19.4% -18.5%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.0% -17.3% -13.9% -16.2%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.1% -23.1% -18.7% -21.8%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.3% -29.6% -19.7% -24.9%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.7% -27.4% -18.6% -24.8%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.3% -31.2% -29.5% -29.2%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.6% -20.6% -19.8% -20.0%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.8% -24.7% -31.3% -24.7%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.0% -17.7% -9.8% -15.9%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.5% -21.4% -13.2% -17.9%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.4% -21.2% -17.6% -19.1%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.5% -21.8% -18.0% -20.2%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.4% -22.0% -17.2% -20.0%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.2% -22.1% -19.2% -19.4%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.8% -17.7% -15.8% -16.8%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.5% -23.7% -18.5% -20.3%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.8% -20.9% -17.7% -18.9%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.2% -23.1% -16.5% -19.7%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.9% -19.3% -17.9% -17.0%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.4% -22.3% -16.0% -18.2%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.2% -33.7% -20.3% -26.9%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -30.0% -32.7% -22.3% -29.0%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.0% -36.2% -35.9% -32.5%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.1% -21.5% -20.9% -19.4%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -15.3% -19.3% -14.3% -16.4%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.4% -24.7% -23.5% -23.2%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.6% -26.2% -17.2% -22.6%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -15.2% -25.0% -15.8% -19.0%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.9% -27.8% -17.4% -22.7%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -14.9% -21.4% -19.0% -18.4%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.6% -15.5% -13.8% -14.3%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.1% -24.5% -21.6% -22.4%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.9% -21.8% -17.7% -19.5%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.2% -18.8% -15.4% -17.2%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.3% -21.1% -18.5% -18.9%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.1% -18.0% -15.2% -16.4%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.8% -22.8% -17.7% -20.5%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.5% -30.9% -19.9% -25.5%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.9% -29.7% -20.1% -26.5%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.9% -33.0% -31.8% -30.4%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -20.9% -20.1% -19.8%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.5% -22.9% -25.7% -22.0%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.7% -19.9% -14.1% -18.1%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.0% -23.0% -14.5% -19.3%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.4% -22.6% -16.9% -19.1%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.0% -23.9% -17.8% -21.1%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.6% -21.8% -17.8% -19.4%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.2% -20.2% -17.6% -18.0%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.8% -19.7% -17.4% -18.3%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%