ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -7.6%
Q2 -37.7%
Q3 -21.2%
Q4 -5.3%
July Aug Sept Q3
Local -21.0% -23.0% -17.0% -20.4%
Natl -20.5% -27.0% -21.0% -22.8%
L+N -20.9% -24.3% -18.3% -21.2%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q3 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

This week Local pacing was almost flat, adding just 0.2 points early last week.

July added 0.8 points, but August gained only 0.2. Meanwhile, September lost 0.6 points.

While July’s gains were seen across most categories – though not among our smallest stations – September’s losses were also fairly widespread.

 

Forecast Updates

The further we get into July, the less likely we’ll see cancels, though things are much riskier in August and September. Our best case scenario is that August suffers the most from states and cities shutting down again and retailers continuing to see supply-chain problems. Worst case, it continues into September and beyond, and hurts the likelihood of returning sports.

So we continue to feel good about July, and can take it up again 2 points. It might even be another point or so stronger.

If COVID wasn’t continuing to pose problems for most of our country, we’d want to see better numbers for August and September. But It’s possible our last forecasts are a bit optimistic, but we’re going to let them ride this week after 2 weeks of lowering them.
With that, our forecasts come to:

 

  • -21.0% for July – up 2 points last week
  • -23.0% for August – flat to last week
  • -17.0% for September – flat to last week
  • -20.4% for the quarter – up 0.8 points from last week

Q3 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National just keeps on growing, picking up 2.2 points this week.

July added a big 4.1 points, August added 1.6, but September added just half a point.

All categories shared in the July growth, and most were flattish in September.

Forecast Updates

We continue to be surprised by National’s improvements, even though we had predicted at one point money was just substantially late and would eventually come. It’s still hard to believe it has! It’s not that the forecasts look good by normal comparisons, but we’ll take any improvements we can get.

July, as in Local, shows the most significant growth, and has the least risk of future loss, and so we will raise its forecast 4.0 points this week, which is still conservative.

As in Local, July “strength” should bode well for August and September, but recent cancels of schedules and uncertainty about returning sports have us playing it safe, and so we’ll hold the forecasts as they stand. That takes the quarter to:

  • -20.5% for July – up 4 points from last week
  • -27.0% for August – flat to last week
  • -21% for September – down 1 point from last week
  • -22.8% for the quarter – up 1.4 points from last week

 

Q3 Local + National

We’re thrilled about having under-forecasted July. We love to be wrong in that direction. However, we worry that we could actually get to the end of the quarter and see that July was the best month, with money booked as things were opening up, but going away in August and September as businesses shut down again. Of course, political displacement is a risk for Core, as well.

We certainly don’t know what the future holds, but we will say that it appears that a highly competitive pricing stance has helped July for many of our customers. We encourage you to take a similarly aggressive posture in August, which could suffer the most from shutdowns if they’re short-lived. September is trickier. It’s clear that things won’t be anywhere back to “normal” by then, so aggressive pricing, particularly in areas where political isn’t buying heavily, is likely smart in this month, too. We’re forecasting the quarter to finish 0.9 points better than last week at -21.2%.

In the end, we repeat our now familiar refrain: who the heck knows what the future holds? Take a stance, and be ready to move quickly when that stance proves wrong. Flexibility is key.

Efficio Spotlight: Stage You Epic Comeback With Efficio

ShareBuilders and Efficio Logo

We all know the clichés about the current state of our world – unprecedented times, trying times, uncertainty – they all mean one thing. There is a lot we don’t know. That is certainly true with sports. This is where Efficio can shine for you. Combine your data with our tools to give you the best picture of where you stand and your path forward.  Click here to learn more

TV Pacing Charts Q3

      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.8% -21.0% -17.1% -19.4%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.4% -17.4% -13.5% -16.3%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.8% -21.8% -18.3% -19.6%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.5% -17.2% -15.0% -16.3%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.2% -22.6% -18.7% -22.1%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.9% -30.6% -22.1% -26.5%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.8% -23.2% -17.1% -23.0%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.4% -33.1% -28.3% -29.2%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.1% -20.3% -19.1% -19.9%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.3% -29.1% -30.3% -26.3%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.9% -17.5% -9.9% -16.2%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.1% -19.5% -13.2% -17.5%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.1% -22.1% -18.2% -19.8%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.5% -23.9% -18.9% -21.6%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.7% -21.8% -16.3% -19.8%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.2% -22.4% -19.4% -19.5%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.0% -15.8% -15.0% -16.5%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.9% -25.4% -20.1% -21.9%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.6% -22.3% -19.5% -20.5%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.1% -25.4% -19.6% -21.8%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.4% -22.6% -20.2% -19.7%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.2% -21.9% -15.8% -18.3%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.2% -35.1% -21.0% -28.7%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -30.4% -37.9% -27.4% -32.5%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.4% -34.9% -33.4% -30.7%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.4% -23.0% -21.7% -20.9%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.0% -20.2% -16.5% -17.9%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.1% -25.6% -24.5% -23.7%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.8% -27.6% -18.7% -24.3%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.2% -28.2% -18.4% -21.3%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.8% -30.7% -19.9% -25.1%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -14.9% -20.8% -18.1% -17.9%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.4% -19.2% -18.3% -17.9%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.5% -27.1% -24.3% -25.0%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.8% -22.5% -18.1% -20.2%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.0% -18.9% -15.2% -17.5%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.2% -23.0% -18.7% -20.3%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -16.5% -19.0% -16.6% -17.3%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.9% -22.3% -17.6% -20.7%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.6% -32.1% -21.7% -27.2%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.2% -29.9% -21.5% -27.0%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.7% -33.8% -30.1% -29.7%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -21.2% -19.9% -20.2%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.0% -26.2% -25.8% -23.6%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.3% -20.1% -14.5% -18.5%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.0% -22.1% -14.9% -19.6%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.2% -24.5% -18.3% -20.3%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.2% -26.3% -19.2% -22.7%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.8% -21.5% -17.0% -19.1%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.0% -21.4% -19.1% -19.1%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.4% -19.3% -17.7% -18.9%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%