ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -7.6%
Q2 -36.2%
Q3 -21.2%
Q4 -5.3%
July Aug Sept Q3
Local -23.0% -20.0% -14.0% -19.3%
Natl -30.0% -27.0% -20.0% -25.9%
L+N -24.9% -22.1% -15.7% -21.2%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q3 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

After weeks of continuing pace declines, we’re happy to report Local Q3 pace climbed 1.8 points week to week.

July added 2.9 points, August 1.2, and September 1.1. The bigger July improvement tells us that while some business is coming down quarterly, more is coming one month at a time.

As we saw in Q2, the southern regions continue to be the strongest, as do smaller markets. Budget cutbacks and non-returning business impact bigger markets more than smaller ones, and many of those big markets are in other regions of the country.

 

Forecast Updates

While we’re pleased with the continued pace improvements, we have plenty of reasons to be cautious. Local books far more money in advance than National does historically, and continued to do so this year. In the meantime, the coronavirus continued to spread, impacting factories of all kinds, causing supply chain issues that are resulting in limited inventories of products like cars, clothing, furniture, and more. On top of these supply issues, other companies are struggling with a diminished supply due to increased demand for things like RV’s and other products that support people taking adjusted vacations during this pandemic.

Furthermore, we all know that COVID is not going away, and is clearly getting worse in many parts of the country. This too might result in regionalized cutbacks from businesses who thought they’d be opening but now are not.

The point is, we’re going to see some wobble in our pace, and so we’re going to lower our projections a bit for August and September. Maybe inventories come back online sooner and we’ll be taking them up again later, but for now we’re estimating:

 

  • -23.0% for July – flat to last week
  • -20.0% for August – down 2 points from last week
  • -14.0% for September – down 2 points from last week
  • -19.3% for the quarter – down 1.4 points from last week

Q3 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

What a chart! After falling to over -44%, National finally rallied and saw an 11.3-point pickup in the last week.

July and August each added 10.9 points, and September picked up 12.4.

The South Atlantic and the Northeast are the strongest regions, but once more our biggest markets trail the smaller ones.

Forecast Updates

The good news about National taking its sweet time to book is that those advertisers with the supply issues we mentioned above, or facing reopening challenges, just won’t book. So we’re hopefully less likely to see cancels, just really soft business to begin with. Yay?

Money will continue to be late, but we can’t ignore the impact of increasing caseloads of COVID-19 impacting advertisers’ willingness to spend. So once more, we’re going to lower our forecasts for August and September to:

  • -30.0% for July – flat to last week
  • -27.0% for August – down 2 points from last week
  • -20% for September – down 5 points from last week
  • -25.9% for the quarter – down 2.2 points from last week

 

Q3 Local + National

Well, we made it through Q2 in what felt like the longest quarter of our lives. If you’re like us, sometime in June you started to have some hope, started to feel like our way out of this hell was a little clearer. The road would be long, but it would be smooth and steadily climbing. Sure, the quarter would still be down 19.2% for Core business, but that was better than Q2’s -36%, and maybe even conservative is June finishes at -24%.

But today, the world and our little industry are much less certain than they were a few weeks ago. The road will be long and bumpy, and instead of finishing well above June’s -24%, it might only be -21.2%, our revised Q3 core forecast for today.

Believe us, we want to be wrong. We want to get to the end of Q3 and be laughed at for being too pessimistic. We’d welcome that. But we want you to go into the quarter with clear eyes about the challenges ahead, and an understanding that the very best thing you can do is be willing to be wrong. Make a guess based on the data that is in front of you, and then be willing to change it when the data says you can. That’s our promise to you: we will make our very best estimate each week, and it may move up and down as the news and the pacing moves up and down as well.

Stay aggressive, and only price your premium inventory high if the market is currently telling you to do so, whether that signal comes from high sellouts, high rates, or political demand. Go for the business, but be honest with yourselves, your bosses, your teams, and your customers that you really don’t know what’s going to happen, but you’ll take care of them no matter what. Change quickly and often. We’ll be here with you every step of the long and bumpy way to help you do that.

Employee Spotlight: Kyle Smeltzer

Pricing Analyst

 

Kyle Smeltzer is a 2018 graduate of Olivet Nazarene University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Economics and Personal Finance. He began his career with ShareBuilders in 2019, joining our team as a Pricing Analyst. His favorite aspect of his work is recognizing trends within data and using that knowledge to guide pricing decisions.

Outside of work, Kyle is an avid disc golfer, and enjoys utilizing creative strategies when playing other games and sports. In part due to his disc golf enthusiasm, it should come as no surprise that Kyle spends much of his leisure time in the great outdoors. Kyle also loves to spend time with his family, particularly his parents, three younger brothers, and toddler nephew. Kyle is recently engaged to be married to his lovely fiancé Carissa, and the couple plan to reside in Central Illinois. We’re pleased to have Kyle as a new member of our team.

TV Pacing Charts Q3

      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.4% -22.0% -16.1% -20.4%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.0% -16.8% -11.8% -16.3%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.3% -24.2% -17.4% -21.4%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.0% -18.6% -14.0% -16.9%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.5% -23.6% -17.5% -22.9%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -30.3% -29.2% -21.1% -27.5%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.1% -22.5% -12.1% -21.1%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -33.3% -36.2% -32.3% -34.0%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.7% -20.1% -18.5% -20.3%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.3% -31.5% -27.4% -29.0%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.0% -18.7% -9.5% -17.0%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.8% -18.9% -10.6% -16.3%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.2% -25.9% -20.3% -24.0%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.6% -26.1% -18.6% -23.8%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.0% -22.8% -15.8% -20.8%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -18.7% -19.8% -17.4% -18.7%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.2% -16.2% -12.8% -16.4%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.5% -31.7% -26.6% -29.4%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.8% -25.9% -20.6% -24.4%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.0% -26.3% -22.5% -25.8%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.9% -30.7% -24.3% -26.7%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -32.5% -35.5% -32.9% -33.6%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -38.7% -37.0% -26.4% -34.7%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -41.2% -47.8% -33.8% -41.9%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -36.4% -42.2% -43.2% -40.5%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.4% -31.1% -32.8% -31.0%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.1% -23.3% -19.2% -24.3%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.1% -24.7% -22.5% -23.8%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -30.5% -29.4% -20.4% -27.1%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -32.8% -43.2% -34.0% -37.0%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -37.9% -39.2% -27.6% -35.4%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.0% -27.8% -28.0% -26.5%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -25.4% -24.4% -22.6% -24.2%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.2% -28.5% -24.3% -26.4%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
      Jul Aug Sep Q3
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.5% -25.2% -19.4% -23.2%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.7% -19.4% -14.1% -18.4%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.9% -24.8% -18.9% -22.7%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -19.9% -22.5% -17.0% -19.9%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.5% -28.0% -23.3% -26.7%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -32.8% -31.7% -22.8% -29.7%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -31.9% -33.9% -20.9% -29.7%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -34.3% -38.3% -36.2% -36.2%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.0% -23.6% -22.8% -23.5%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -28.5% -28.8% -24.7% -27.5%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -21.8% -20.3% -13.1% -18.8%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -22.1% -22.2% -13.5% -19.5%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -27.7% -32.7% -25.5% -28.8%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -29.4% -30.7% -21.7% -27.6%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -23.3% -24.5% -19.8% -22.6%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.5% -21.2% -18.8% -20.2%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -20.9% -19.8% -16.0% -19.1%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%