ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -3.0%
Q2 -3.3%
Q3 1.4%
Q4 -3.6%
Jan Feb Mar Q1
Local -2.1% -5.5% -0.5% -2.8%
Natl -0.9% -7.0% -2.5%

-3.6%

L+N -1.8% -5.9% -1.1% -3.0%
April May June Q2
Local 3.3% -5.0% 3.0% 2.0%
Natl -3.0% -3.0% 0.0%

-2.2%

L+N -4.6% 2.0% 1.7% -0.8%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q1 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Local continues to see pacing declines in Q1, losing 0.6 points this week, with both February (down 0.7) and March (down 1.3) falling.

Our CW and MyNet stations had a better week, but all regions fell, and only the Top 20 group saw improvement among the DMA breakdown, and only a tenth of a point.

Forecast Updates

February may not fall as much as our forecast says it will (about a half a point) but it’s unclear where to take it, so we’ll hold it at our previous forecast.

We’re lowering March’s forecast by half a point to play it safe, but it’s possible February pre-empts caused by heavy political in some markets might drive March up. Hopefully we’re too low and can raise it again in a couple of weeks.

  • -2.1% for January
  • -5.5% for February 
  • -0.5% for March – down half a point
  • Quarter at -2.7% – down a tenth of a point

Q1 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National pace for the quarter remained flat week to week, with February’s 0.3-point gain cancelled out by March’s 0.2-point loss.

The February gains were led by MyNets and Independents, the Midwest and Northeast regions, and big markets.

 

Forecast Updates

As in Local, we might be too conservative for February by holding it at -7%, as our percent of final charts indicate a couple tenths of a point stronger, but we’ll keep our estimate conservative here at the end of the month.

Our previous March forecast, however, continues to look conservative. While we may run into issues with non-returning business that was not yet booked in 2019, again we suspect that February preempts might be a boon for the month. So we’ll raise our forecast up half a point, but it might be closer to flat.

  • -0.9% for January
  • -7.0% for February 
  • -2.5% for March – up half a point
  • Quarter at -3.6% – up a tenth of a point

Q1 Local + National

Political hit the end of February hard for many markets, with Bloomberg, Steyer, Sanders, and more laying it on thick in markets with March primaries. That’s driven down core business, but we’re hopeful March will benefit from some of that. In the end, our forecast for total core remains at -3%, with signs of slight upside.

Q2 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

There aren’t many points on our first glimpse of the Q2 Local chart, but you can see that the pace is positive, but trending downwards. This matches the Q1 pattern, where all stations were pacing +5.5% in early November but are now at -2.7% almost 2 months into the quarter.

April pace is holding steadier than May and June, where the declines have been more significant.

Currently our strongest categories include Fox and NBC’s, the Northeast and South Atlantic, and markets 21-65.

Forecast Updates

Q2 pacing is strong, but it’s too early to trust that much. If the Q1 patterns, a more stable form of forecasting the future, are any indication, Q2 Local could be in the low positive single digits. However, we find that hard to believe given our patterns lately, so we’re going to keep our forecasts very safe for now, but we’ll be ready to move up more as we get closer to the start of the quarter. For now, we see:

  • -5.5% for April
  • -2.0% for May
  • -1.5% for June
  • Quarter at -3.3%

Q2 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National pacing starts off even stronger than Local in even years, and remains in the double-digits today, though trending downwards over the last couple of weeks.

In Q1, National didn’t hit its peak until early-December, falling 32 points from the peak to now. This means if Q2 is to follow the same pattern, we won’t peak until early March. We suspect, however, that we’re peaking a bit earlier in Q2, and should brace ourselves for a big drop throughout the month of March.

April has seen small gains, but May and June are dropping a bit more.

The strongest Q2 pace is in the CBS and NBC categories, the South Central and South Atlantic, and our smallest markets.

Forecast Updates

It’s too early to draw many conclusions from the pacing for Q2, so we generally lean more on the patterns from Q1. Those patterns say that the following are safe forecasts for now. If we had to pick a month that concerns us the most, that month would be May, where it continues to appear that buyers are finding the middle month of the quarter less attractive than the other two.

  • -4.0% for April
  • -3.5% for May
  • -1.5% for June
  • Quarter at -3.2% 

Q2 Local + National

Pacing is strong and early for Q2 core right now, so we can’t yet put a lot of weight into what the numbers tell us about where things will finish. The biggest thing we’re watching is May’s relative weakness versus April and June. Let your consultant know if you are experiencing that and have some guesses as to why. In the meantime, we’re forecasting the quarter to finish at -3.3%.

What’s The Story, Inventory?

 

As we close out February, inventory for Q1 has remained mostly open through the end of the quarter. Other than Late News, all dayparts saw a shift in inventory from Too Tight to On Target.  Prime Access has seen the greatest shift with Too Tight decreasing from 23% to 12% and On Target increasing from 3% to 15%.  Open inventory has also increased across all dayparts except for Prime, which remains at 79% Too Open. 

TV Pacing Charts Q1

      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.1% -5.0% -0.5% -2.7%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.3% -2.3% -0.5% -2.1%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.8% -29.9% 3.7% -8.5%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.5% -2.0% -0.8% -2.2%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.6% 48.0% 4.6% 16.4%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.8% -7.8% -4.4% -5.4%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.0% -5.1% -9.0% -7.4%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.5% -11.9% -12.0% -12.4%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.7% 2.6% -2.4% -1.1%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.2% -6.5% -5.4% -3.5%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -5.0% -5.6% 5.2% -2.0%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.6% -5.4% 2.2% -1.8%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.9% -11.5% -3.3% -5.3%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.3% -15.7% -1.5% -6.9%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.6% 8.0% 1.5% 3.0%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.0% -11.1% 1.2% -4.5%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.2% -0.7% -2.3% -2.1%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.3% 2.2% 15.7% 7.3%
      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.9% -7.0% 1.6% -2.4%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.9% -1.0% 4.6% 0.6%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.2% -45.8% 7.3% -16.2%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -4.8% -5.7% -3.6%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.5% 69.3% 7.0% 25.2%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.2% 2.6% 9.6% 6.5%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.6% -7.4% 4.3% -2.3%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.1% -10.5% -5.0% -9.4%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.9% 2.1% 2.7% 1.0%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.3% -13.0% 7.3% -5.3%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.5% -9.4% 0.8% -3.9%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.1% -4.7% 8.3% 0.4%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.3% -11.0% -8.2% -5.3%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.5% -19.2% -2.4% -10.3%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.2% 10.4% 7.6% 7.5%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.4% -4.3% 2.8% -0.1%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.7% -0.4% -0.3% 1.0%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 23.2% 19.9% -7.9% 12.3%
      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -5.7% 0.1% -2.6%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.9% -2.0% 0.9% -1.4%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.3% -35.5% 4.8% -11.0%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.6% -2.8% -2.4% -2.6%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.3% 55.1% 5.5% 19.4%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.6% -4.6% 0.1% -1.7%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.4% -6.0% -3.7% -5.4%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -13.4% -11.5% -9.8% -11.5%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% 2.5% -0.9% -0.5%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.0% -8.5% -1.8% -4.1%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.3% -6.8% 3.7% -2.6%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.5% -5.2% 4.1% -1.1%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.0% -11.3% -5.1% -5.3%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.7% -17.0% -1.8% -8.1%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.9% 8.8% 3.5% 4.5%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.9% -9.3% 1.6% -3.3%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -0.6% -1.8% -1.4%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.1% 10.8% 1.9% 6.6%

    TV Pacing Charts Q2

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.4% 0.9% 12.3% 6.6%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.9% -2.6% 10.7% 3.5%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.5% 0.8% 11.9% 2.8%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.7% 4.3% 14.4% 9.6%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.3% -1.3% 11.6% 6.4%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 28.2% 15.0% 24.4% 22.5%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.1% -5.6% 4.0% -1.2%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.7% -1.8% 5.2% 1.2%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.4% -5.9% 3.3% -1.0%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.2% 17.0% 23.5% 17.5%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 15.6% 2.9% 18.8% 12.3%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.6% 0.2% 11.9% 5.6%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.9% 1.3% 13.1% 6.7%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 18.8% 14.5% 27.1% 19.6%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.6% -3.7% 10.0% 2.9%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -6.5% -6.6% 3.1% -3.9%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.7% -4.6% 2.9% 0.3%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.3% -2.4% 7.3% 4.3%
        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 26.5% 19.6% 31.5% 25.6%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 36.9% 18.0% 25.4% 27.0%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 13.9% 41.8% 49.8% 29.8%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 33.9% 33.3% 50.3% 37.8%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 21.2% -7.6% 12.3% 8.5%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.3% -5.8% 6.0% 1.5%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 24.6% 23.7% 25.7% 24.6%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 12.0% 12.3% 24.0% 15.3%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -9.7% -15.0% -9.4% -11.4%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 23.5% 33.8% 37.8% 30.5%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 55.7% 36.0% 39.8% 45.5%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 71.4% 47.2% 63.5% 62.5%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.7% 19.5% 45.4% 17.7%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.0% 19.4% 38.0% 21.2%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 23.2% 6.6% 24.4% 17.8%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 29.3% 10.2% 13.6% 18.3%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 66.9% 50.6% 43.6% 54.4%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.7% -17.8% -4.9% -3.1%
        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.6% 3.6% 15.0% 9.5%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.6% 0.4% 13.1% 7.0%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.2% 6.2% 16.7% 6.9%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 13.9% 7.7% 18.3% 13.0%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.3% -2.3% 11.7% 6.7%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 23.5% 11.0% 21.5% 18.5%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.4% -0.8% 7.5% 3.1%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.9% 0.9% 8.5% 3.8%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.3% -7.3% 1.3% -2.7%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 15.5% 19.5% 25.4% 19.3%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 21.8% 7.3% 21.5% 16.9%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 15.1% 5.3% 17.4% 12.5%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.2% 5.0% 19.1% 9.1%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 18.2% 15.4% 28.8% 19.9%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.6% -2.2% 11.9% 5.0%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.7% -4.3% 4.6% -0.8%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.0% 1.9% 8.1% 6.7%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.4% -5.4% 5.0% 2.8%