ShareBuilders TV Forecast

 

L+N TV
Q1 -4.1%
Q2 -2.4%
Q3 -1.2%
Q4 0.7%
L+N TV
Q1 -3.3%
Q2 -4.1%
Q3 1.4%
Q4 -3.6%
Oct Nov Dec Q4
Local 8.8% -5.0% -3.5% 0.4%
Natl 9.3% -2.6% -4.5%

1.1%

L+N 8.9% -4.2% -3.9% 0.7%
Jan Feb Mar Q1
Local -3.5% -2.5% -2.0% -2.9%
Natl -5.0% -7.0% -3.0%

1.1%

L+N -3.8% -3.3% -2.2% -3.3%

TV Forecast Observations

 

Q4 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Local Q4 pace dropped 0.3 points this week, though we suspect this might be due to continued data issues with some of our sample, as well as missing data points due to the Thanksgiving holiday.December alone dropped 0.9 points, with all categories falling.

Keep in mind that Thanksgiving was on 11/22 in 2018 versus 11/28 in 2019 – so this year’s Thanksgiving week is pacing against a post-Thanksgiving week in 2018, which would certainly explain some declines. For this theory to hold true, this week better show some improvements.

Forecast Updates

Preemptions due to special programming and just general tightness likely slowed down November, requiring us to lower our forecast half a point to -5%.

December looks a bit better today as some of our sample starts to see normal pacing again, so we’ll raise it a point:

  • +8.8% for October
  • -5.0% for November
  • -3.5% for December
  • +0.4 for the Quarter

Q4 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

For all the same reasons as Local, the quarter dropped this week on the National side, though only by 0.2 points. December, on the other hand, lost a bigger 0.9, with losses seen in all categories.
Forecast Updates
As in Local, knowing that our data is a bit wonky we’ve been careful about making big changes to our forecasts, and so we’ll continue to forecast a safe finish of -4.5% for December, which allows for more declines from here.
  • +9.3% for October
  • -2.5% for November
  • -4.5% for December
  • Quarter at +1.1%

Q4 Local + National

With no change to our December forecasts we’ll keep the quarter’s combined estimate of +0.7%.

Q1 Local + National

We’ve avoided talking much about Q1 2020, mostly because the data we depend on for forecasting isn’t very reliable with so little money booked – just as any single station shouldn’t trust their pacing right now, we don’t trust our numbers either. Furthermore, when we don’t trust pacing we rely on relationships to prior quarters/months, but Q4 has been an interesting one, with bigger than expected healthcare spending that won’t be there in 2020. We’re in a bit of a grey zone, and likely will be until the last week of the month when we should have something like 60% of the money booked by 12/23.

Until we can trust the data more, we’re going to stick to a forecast of around -3.3% for the quarter for total core. If you expect a lot more political, and therefore political displacement, that might be lower. If you expect less political, or have the Super Bowl, of course you’ll be higher.

 

Employee Spotlight

Mark Bretsch, Director of Consulting

 

Mark Bretsch is Director of Consulting and Senior Consultant for ShareBuilders. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Advertising from the University of Illinois and joined the ShareBuilders family in 2006. Prior to his tenure with ShareBuilders, Mark had a long career in radio sales and management. He got his start in radio by winning a contest on a Chicago radio station that allowed him to be an on-air DJ for an hour. Though Mark claims that performance was awful, radio got its hooks into him and never let go. (This biographer will be reserving judgment on the quality of that fated broadcast until the tapes are produced.)

 Before becoming an employee, Mark was a ShareBuilders client on three separate occasions. Most notably, he was on the management team of the very first ShareBuilders radio station. When the opportunity arose to bring Mark into the ShareBuilders fold, he brought a unique perspective that has proven invaluable. He’s also got some great stories about ShareBuilders in the age of dial-up internet.

 True to his rock-n-roll radio roots, Mark is a huge music fan. He spends much of his free time traveling and seeing live shows. One of his proudest achievements is that (at least some of) his musical tastes have rubbed off on his teenage daughter Genevieve. We’re proud to have Mark and his impressive radio pedigree on our team!

TV Pacing Charts Q4

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.8% -5.0% -1.8% 0.6%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 12.6% -5.6% -1.5% 1.7%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.7% -6.8% -1.5% 0.1%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 15.5% -0.6% 1.2% 5.3%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.4% -0.1% 0.4% 3.5%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.3% -15.3% -11.4% -9.8%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -11.6% -12.1% -11.9% -11.9%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.2% -12.5% -13.8% -9.2%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.5% -7.4% -0.5% 2.7%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.5% -5.0% -2.8% -3.1%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.1% -0.5% 1.0% 4.9%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.8% -5.8% -3.8% -2.0%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.7% -5.6% -2.2% 0.3%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.1% -5.6% -4.5% -0.4%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.3% -4.2% -0.6% 2.2%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.1% -12.1% -3.6% -3.3%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.4% -1.4% 3.4% 2.0%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 25.3% 17.1% 21.7% 21.7%

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.3% -2.6% -0.9% 1.7%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.4% -3.6% 0.7% 3.8%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 12.0% -0.1% 2.5% 4.4%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 18.9% 2.1% 8.5% 9.3%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 17.7% 5.7% 2.3% 8.8%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.9% 2.1% 10.2% 3.3%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.5% -5.0% -2.6% -3.8%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.7% -5.0% -14.6% -3.9%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 20.3% -9.4% -11.9% -1.0%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.0% 1.1% -1.2% -2.7%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 13.9% 1.4% -1.8% 4.4%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.5% -2.2% 4.0% 1.5%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.8% -2.5% 5.3% 5.2%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.6% -4.2% -4.0% -1.4%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 20.4% 0.5% 5.5% 8.4%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.8% -7.0% -3.9% -1.4%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.4% -1.3% -2.3% 0.1%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -26.7% -13.8% 10.7% -14.5%

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.9% -4.2% -1.5% 0.9%
             
    ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 13.6% -5.0% -0.8% 2.3%
    CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.4% -4.6% -0.1% 1.6%
    NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.5% 0.3% 3.6% 6.5%
    FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 12.2% 1.9% 1.1% 5.3%
    CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -9.6% -4.3% -5.4%
    MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -8.3% -9.2% -7.8% -8.5%
    TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.4% -9.7% -14.1% -7.3%
             
    Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 0.0% -8.0% -4.5% 1.5%
    Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -3.5% -3.2% -2.3% -3.0%
    South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4.7%
    South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.7% -4.5% -1.0% -0.7%
    West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.5% -4.5% 0.5% 2.1%
             
    TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.0% -5.1% -4.3% -0.8%
    TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.2% -2.6% 1.6% 4.3%
    TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.3% -10.6% -3.7% -2.8%
    TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 4.1% -1.4% 1.7% 1.5%
             
    All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -14.9% -8.0% 5.1% -7.8%

     

    TV Pacing Charts Q1

        Jan Feb Mar Q1
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.8% 2.1% 7.2% 3.4%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.3% 12.7% 16.4% 10.7%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 8.0% -35.6% 7.0% -9.4%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.2% 13.7% 9.7% 9.3%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.2% 99.7% 1.3% 27.3%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.3% -23.1% -18.4% -22.3%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -32.8% -7.8% -6.3% -19.5%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.0% 17.3% 14.9% 14.3%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 19.8% 19.7% 16.5% 18.8%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -4.4% -21.0% -6.7% -10.7%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.3% -5.1% -2.2% -2.8%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.7% 6.6% 10.3% 4.5%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -5.7% 5.5% 10.2% 1.7%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -1.7% -14.1% 7.7% -3.2%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 5.8% 17.2% 9.6% 10.5%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -2.0% -16.8% -5.9% -8.0%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.7% 13.6% 10.6% 8.1%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.4% 17.6% 26.9% 18.8%
        Jan Feb Mar Q1
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 55.2% -8.5% 50.3% 27.5%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 63.6% 113.5% 82.3% 84.2%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 63.0% -65.1% 54.2% -12.6%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 78.8% 85.7% 64.7% 76.2%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 52.6% 164.8% 39.0% 78.0%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 13.5% 13.9% 29.5% 18.5%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 59.3% 29.8% 32.7% 42.1%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -24.8% -27.9% -24.8% -25.8%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.4% 1.6% 26.3% 13.7%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 58.1% -44.2% 33.0% 1.1%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 70.4% 13.9% 114.4% 56.6%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 121.9% 28.2% 89.6% 74.4%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 32.1% -29.1% 16.7% 3.9%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 48.1% -45.7% 46.2% -0.4%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 72.5% 44.5% 59.5% 59.1%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 15.7% -23.0% 7.7% 0.2%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 65.1% 68.0% 69.2% 67.3%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 3.7% -2.4% 12.7% 3.9%
        Jan Feb Mar Q1
      All SB TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 11.3% -0.6% 15.6% 8.4%
               
      ABC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 14.3% 28.6% 27.3% 22.4%
      CBS Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 19.9% -46.6% 17.6% -10.3%
      NBC Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 15.9% 23.5% 18.2% 18.8%
      FOX Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 7.9% 111.4% 9.2% 37.0%
      CW Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.7% -16.2% -8.8% -14.7%
      MNTV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -17.7% 0.5% 2.7% -7.3%
      TV Independent Stations TV Executive Summary Pace -0.7% 2.4% 4.6% 2.3%
               
      Midwest TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 19.2% 15.6% 18.3% 17.7%
      Northeast TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 6.0% -27.5% -0.3% -8.3%
      South Atlantic TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.3% -0.9% 16.5% 8.0%
      South Central TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 16.5% 11.5% 24.2% 17.0%
      West TV Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 2.9% -6.2% 12.1% 2.4%
               
      TV DMA Rank 1→20 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 9.1% -26.0% 15.8% -2.4%
      TV DMA Rank 21→65 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 18.1% 23.0% 20.0% 20.2%
      TV DMA Rank 66→100 Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 1.1% -17.9% -3.4% -6.5%
      TV DMA Rank 101+ Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 10.2% 21.2% 19.7% 16.2%
               
      All SB Radio Stations TV Executive Summary Pace 12.6% 14.7% 25.1% 16.5%