Happy Thanksgiving from your friends at ShareBuilders!
This year, we’re especially grateful for the experience and insights of our clients, both new and established, and the relationships we’ve built. We’d like to wish you all a safe and happy holiday weekend. May your pants be stretchy and the gravy be plentiful.

ShareBuilders Radio Forecast

 

L+N Radio
Q1 -5.0%
Q2 -1.1%
Q3 -0.5%
Q4 -8.9%
Oct Nov Dec Q4
Local -7.1% -5.5% -1.5% -6.0%
Natl -26.7% -15.5% 10.0% -13.4%
L+N -14.9% -10.3% 1.7% -8.2%

Radio Forecast Observations

 

Q4 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

After minor declines in pace since the beginning of the quarter, Local this week picked up 0.3 points, with November adding half a point and December 1.3.

Most groups saw the uptick, though the Northeast and smaller markets fell a bit.

Forecast Updates

It would appear November and December will finish 1-2 points better than our last forecast: 

  • -7.1% for October
  • -5.5% for November
  • -1.5% for December
  • -5.0% for the Quarter

Q4 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National gained just a tenth of a point this week, with November adding three-tenths of a point but December losing 2.6.

Most categories echoed the overall trends: up in November and down in December.

 

Forecast Updates

We’re not going to change it just yet, but December might be a bit better than its already strong +10% forecast. We’ll see what it looks like after the holiday and hold at:

  • -26.7% for October
  • -15.5% for November
  • +10% for December
  • -13.4% for the Quarter

Q4 Local + National

Local’s improvement brings our combined forecast up 0.7 points to -8.2%.

Radio Pacing Charts Q4

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -7.1% -5.7% 3.2% -4.1%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -11.5% -9.6% -10.1% -10.5%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -7.4% -7.4% -5.3%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -4.0% -1.5% 8.7% -0.2%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -9.6% -6.7% 7.0% -4.2%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.7% -4.1% 6.3% -2.2%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -10.9% -10.0% -4.9% -9.1%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.8% -5.7% 3.6% -2.6%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 2.2% -4.0% -5.7% -2.2%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -17.0% -13.5% -3.4% -12.0%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.6% -6.1% 1.5% -4.2%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 8.8% -4.8% -1.2% 0.8%

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -26.7% -15.0% 11.0% -14.9%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -39.8% -31.0% 3.8% -29.1%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -14.5% -20.8% -7.6% -15.4%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -28.5% -18.4% 16.0% -16.5%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -24.3% -1.8% 16.1% -7.7%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -22.9% -9.4% 14.2% -10.3%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -37.4% -30.6% -0.2% -28.5%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -31.8% 5.0% 39.7% -8.7%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 12.5% 33.0% 33.7% 25.3%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -18.7% 1.3% 27.9% -0.8%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -23.0% -21.0% 7.9% -16.5%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 9.3% -2.7% 0.2% 2.0%

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -14.9% -9.2% 5.7% -8.1%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -22.9% -17.7% -5.9% -17.4%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -6.6% -12.3% -7.5% -8.9%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -15.5% -9.1% 11.5% -7.4%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -14.7% -5.2% 9.5% -5.3%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -12.6% -6.1% 8.9% -5.2%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -21.1% -17.5% -3.6% -15.9%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -9.5% -4.1% 7.3% -3.6%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 5.6% 7.9% 6.2% 6.6%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -17.7% -8.3% 6.5% -8.0%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -13.9% -13.0% 4.1% -9.8%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 8.9% -4.1% -0.7% 1.2%