ShareBuilders Radio Forecast

 

L+N Radio
Q1 -5.0%
Q2 -1.1%
Q3 -0.5%
Q4 -8.9%
Oct Nov Dec Q4
Local -6.1% -8.0% -3.0% -6.1%
Natl -26.7% -15.5% 10.0% -13.4%
L+N -14.7% -10.3% 1.7% -8.9%

Radio Forecast Observations

 

Q4 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

The quarter lost a tenth of a pace point this week, with November up two-tenths and December flat.
Forecast Updates
Both November and December show potentially stronger finishes, so we’ll raise each half a point this week to the following forecasts:
  • -6.1% for October
  • -7.5% for November
  • -2.5% for December
  • -5.9% for the Quarter

Q4 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National saw nice growth this week, with the quarter gaining 0.9 points due to November’s 1.5-point pickup and December’s 1.9-point growth.

Just about every category we track contributed to that growth.

 

Forecast Updates

We see November finishing slightly higher and will raise its forecast by half a point. December might be stronger too, but National has been early this year, so we’re cautious about raising it and will hold at a very nice +10%.

  • -26.7% for October
  • -15.5% for November
  • +10% for December
  • -13.4% for the Quarter

Q4 Local + National

Slow upward movement takes our combined forecast for the quarter up half a point to -8.9%.

Radio Pacing Charts Q4

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -6.6% -6.2% 2.0% -4.4%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -11.1% -11.1% -12.6% -11.4%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.0% -8.4% -3.4% -4.4%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -4.0% -1.9% 7.6% -0.7%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -8.9% -6.8% 4.2% -4.7%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.2% -4.6% 3.9% -2.8%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -10.3% -10.4% -3.2% -8.7%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -6.0% 1.3% -2.5%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 2.2% -4.2% -8.9% -3.1%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -16.8% -13.5% -2.1% -11.7%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.2% -6.8% 3.6% -4.0%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 8.7% -4.3% -2.7% 0.6%

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -26.7% -15.4% 11.6% -15.3%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -39.8% -31.4% 4.9% -29.3%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -14.8% -21.8% -11.4% -16.8%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -28.4% -17.5% 20.1% -15.9%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -24.3% -3.5% 15.5% -8.7%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -22.9% -10.1% 14.4% -10.8%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -37.4% -30.2% 1.5% -28.3%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -31.7% 0.3% 42.3% -10.9%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 12.4% 32.2% 33.6% 24.8%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -18.7% 0.8% 29.0% -1.1%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -23.1% -20.7% 10.0% -16.4%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 9.4% -2.7% -1.4% 1.6%

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -14.7% -9.6% 5.0% -8.4%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -22.6% -18.8% -7.3% -18.1%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -6.2% -13.4% -6.2% -9.0%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -15.5% -8.9% 12.5% -7.4%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -14.3% -5.8% 7.2% -6.0%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -12.4% -6.7% 7.4% -5.8%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -20.7% -17.6% -1.9% -15.6%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -8.3% -5.0% 5.0% -3.9%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 5.6% 7.5% 3.8% 5.8%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -17.5% -8.4% 7.7% -7.9%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -13.6% -13.2% 6.2% -9.6%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 8.9% -3.8% -2.3% 0.9%