ShareBuilders Radio Forecast

 

L+N Radio
Q1 -5.0%
Q2 -1.0%
Q3 -0.5%
Q4 -9.4%
Oct Nov Dec Q4
Local -6.1% -8.0% -3.0% -6.1%
Natl -26.3% -16.0% 10.0% -15.2%
L+N -14.2% -10.8% 1.2% -9.4%

Radio Forecast Observations

 

Q4 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

We saw the quarter lose 0.4 pace points this week, with both months falling – November down 1.5 points and December 0.2.
  • All categories were down save the West and the News/Talk/Sports and Adult/male-oriented formats.
Forecast Updates
We like our forecasts for Local and will hold them, though there is a slight possibility of each month being a point or so stronger, especially December.
  • -6.1% for October
  • -8% for November
  • -3% for December
  • -6.1% for the Quarter

Q4 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National fell this week as well, with November down 2.4 points and December down 2.2. Some growth was seen in the following categories: the South, Midwest, small markets, and Female-oriented formats.

 

Forecast Updates

We like our National forecasts still as well, and will hold them at:

  • -26.3% for October
  • -16% for November
  • +10% for December
  • -15.2% for the Quarter

Q4 Local + National

A boring forecast week for us, or we’re just that good! No change this week to the combined forecast of -9.4%.

ShareBuilder Spotlight: Market Projection Tool

 

Now that your Q3 audits are in, you might be curious about what this means for Q4 markets.   Our Market Projection tool can display several years of market history based on previous quarters.    Is the Q4 market typically higher or lower than Q3?  Is it different in even and odd years because of political crowd out?    Ask your consultant to walk you through the process of projecting upcoming quarters using this tool.

 

Radio Pacing Charts Q4

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -6.1% -6.1% 2.6% -4.1%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -7.9% -8.6% -6.5% -7.9%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.0% -7.4% -3.3% -4.0%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -4.0% -2.5% 8.1% -0.9%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -8.9% -7.3% 3.4% -5.1%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.2% -5.4% 3.3% -3.2%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -8.8% -8.2% 0.3% -6.5%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -5.2% 1.1% -2.3%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 2.2% -6.4% -7.6% -3.5%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -16.8% -14.3% -3.9% -12.5%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.8% -3.7% 7.3% -1.4%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 8.6% -3.2% -1.4% 1.5%

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -26.3% -16.6% 11.9% -15.8%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -38.4% -32.3% 4.6% -29.1%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -14.8% -23.1% -7.8% -16.7%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -28.4% -19.2% 24.3% -16.4%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -24.3% -4.8% 11.7% -10.2%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -22.9% -12.1% 14.6% -11.8%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -36.6% -30.4% 1.8% -28.2%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -32.4% -1.9% 41.0% -12.7%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 12.4% 31.7% 40.4% 25.8%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -18.7% -0.5% 23.3% -3.3%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -21.9% -20.7% 13.3% -15.4%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 9.1% -3.1% -0.4% 1.7%

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -14.2% -10.0% 5.5% -8.4%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -20.1% -17.7% -3.1% -15.9%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -6.2% -13.4% -4.9% -8.7%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -15.5% -10.0% 14.2% -7.8%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -14.3% -6.5% 5.5% -6.8%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -12.4% -7.9% 7.0% -6.5%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -19.5% -16.3% 0.7% -14.2%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -8.5% -4.7% 4.6% -4.0%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 5.6% 5.7% 6.3% 5.8%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -17.5% -9.4% 4.5% -9.2%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -12.4% -11.7% 9.8% -7.9%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 8.8% -3.2% -1.1% 1.5%