Let’s Get Through This Together

By Erin Koller

Is it just us, or does every day feel about 100 hours long? And in each of those hours we’re confronted with terrifying news, cancellations, frightening statistics, and new vocabulary like “social distancing” and “flattening the curve”.

Those of us who are new to remote working are struggling to figure it out, fighting with uncooperative technology and coworkers who just don’t understand how to use the mute button, all the while dealing with kids that have been out of school for a day and are already “so bored!”.

And of course, most profoundly, we’re worried. Worried about the media business, our employees, and our coworkers. Worried about our economy, on a global, national, state, and local level. Worried about our friends who run the restaurants and small businesses that power our communities. And of course, deeply worried about the health of our loved ones and ourselves.

So many people write articles like this and say that “we’re living in unprecedented times”. But in truth, global pandemics have happened before. And humanity has soldiered on. We will make it through this too, though likely changed, hopefully for the better.  

The best we can do is plan ahead as best we can, but also take it one day at a time. And so that’s what we’ll do with our forecasts below: we’ll provide our best to estimate what we think will happen to our numbers, but knowing that we can’t predict the future, we’ll be ready to change as new information arises. We’ll be recommending that you do the same on your calls.

In the meantime, ShareBuilders is here for you like we’ve always been. Your consultants are flexible, ready to reschedule or skip a call or find some other way to accommodate your unpredictable needs. We’re working remotely as well, and understand that you might be scrambling to balance work and childcare. We don’t mind the barking dog or the whining toddler in the background – you’ll probably hear ours too. We’re in this together, and together we’ll make it through to the other side.

ShareBuilders Radio Forecast

 

L+N Radio
Q1 5.2%
Q2 -5.2%
Q3 -0.1%
Q4 10.2%
Jan Feb Mar Q1
Local -0.3% 7.0% -1.5% 1.8%
Natl 23.2% 28.2% -13.0% 14.3%
L+N 6.2% 13.6% -5.0% 5.2%
April May June Q2
Local -5.0% -7.0% -2.0% -4.8%
Natl -8.5% -8.0% -2.0% -6.7%
L+N -5.8% -7.2% -2.0% -5.2%

Radio Forecast Observations

 

Q1 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Local pacing dropped 1.6 points in the quarter, driven by March’s 4.7-point drop.

All categories show the decline, and we suspect it will continue.

Forecast Updates

Further cancellations from local events and other advertisers particularly affected by the coronavirus closures are likely to further depress March, so we’re lowering our forecast 6.5 points today:

  • -0.5% for January
  • +7.0% for February
  • -1.5% for March – down 6.5 points from last week
  • +1.8% for the Quarter – down 2.0 points from last week

Q1 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

The quarter fell by 1.7 points thanks to a 2.5-point drop in March.

Forecast Updates

Cancellations are clearly pulling down March. We hope this is confined to March and early Q2, but until then, we certainly need to lower our forecast quite a bit for the rest of this quarter to the numbers below:

  • +23.2% for January
  • +28.2% for February
  • -13.0% for March – down 11.0 points
  • +14.3% for the Quarter – down 3.7 points

Q1 Local + National

Our Q1 forecast combines to look a couple tenths of a point stronger than last week at +7.9%.

 

 

Q2 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q2 fell just 1.3 points, mostly in April, which was down 2.6 points. May was off by 1.4, and June up 0.3 points.

TV is seeing much more significant declines, with cancellations from sports and other major events taking their toll.

Forecast Updates

Radio is likely to feel the pain from cancelled local events in the short term pretty significantly. We really have no idea but would like to think that things will improve near the end of the quarter, so we’ll be more conservative on our April and May forecasts than in June. We’ll start with the forecasts below and tweak as necessary as new data comes in:

  • -5.0% for April – down 3.0 points
  • -7.0% for May – down 7.0 points
  • -2.0% for June – down 4.0 points
  • -0.2% for the Quarter – down 4.6 points

Q2 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Pacing climbed 1.9 points this week, but we may see a drop later as we pull in data from more of our stations this week.

April climbed by 1.6 points, May by 2.2, and June by 1.8.

Forecast Updates

This week’s pace improvements were surprising given the current climate, but it’s quite possible that we’re just not seeing the full effect of coronavirus-related panic yet. We will adjust our forecasts downward a bit today but may need to do so more as more data comes in, in the coming weeks. On the other hand, Local might feel the pain quite a bit more than National, so maybe we won’t have to lower too much. We’ll keep you posted.

  • -8.5% for April – down 5.5 points
  • -8.0% for May – down 4.0 points
  • -2.0% for June – down 2.0 points
  • -6.7% for the Quarter  – down 4.2 points

Q2 Local + National

We’ve lowered our Q2 forecast 4.5 points to -5.2% today. We’re certainly not confident that we’re accurate here, as we don’t have data to tell us what to do – all we can do is guess. We might be too low, but we want to encourage our customers to make realistic estimates of where things could go from here, and therefore we’re modeling that behavior in our own forecasting.

On the more positive side of things, as one of our consultants shared with our team earlier this week, you’ve never had a more captive audience than you do right now. People are starving for news, even though it may not be good for their mental health, which might in turn lead them to your music programming as a distraction. Use this to your advantage! Sure, it may not make sense for the travel industry or events to advertise, but there are a lot of categories that would be a perfect fit, as long as they have the money to spend. It’s a good thing that fear of programmatic killing the human salesperson role hasn’t yet come true (we never thought it would), because your sellers are more important than ever. A human touch (while standing 6 feet apart, or better yet, on the phone!) is your strength right now.

 

 

 

Efficio Spotlight: Mobile Capabilities

 

Today’s Efficio Spotlight becomes even more relevant considering what’s going on across the country as more and more people are being asked to work remotely.  The great news, as a cloud-based platform, Efficio was already more than capable of allowing its clients to work anywhere and access their data. 

Efficio is also available as a mobile app for both iOS and Android.  The app allows clients to seamlessly access Efficio on the go and works just like the current Efficio desktop platform.  The app includes all the same functionality and navigation. Using Efficio, you can use your computer, the web, and your phones to keep moving sales forward. Managers can help guide AEs, as they can see what is in the pipeline and offer assistance. While there may be less face-to-face interactions, business can still progress. And that is important!  Learn more about Efficio at www.efficiosolutions.com.

Radio Pacing Charts Q1

      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.3% 7.0% -2.3% 1.4%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -4.8% 7.7% -0.8% 0.8%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.0% 9.0% 7.9% 5.1%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.7% 12.5% -0.5% 4.1%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.7% 2.6% -6.4% -1.1%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 1.1% 7.8% -2.5% 2.1%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.9% 4.7% -1.7% -0.3%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -7.0% -1.7% -2.6% -3.8%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.0% 1.5% -6.7% 1.2%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.3% 5.3% -14.6% -4.4%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.0% 10.5% 2.5% 4.1%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.1% -5.9% -6.4% -4.8%

     

     

      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 23.2% 28.2% -11.9% 11.6%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 2.4% 0.5% -25.2% -9.7%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 16.9% 21.0% -2.9% 11.2%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 14.4% 19.9% -13.6% 5.9%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 41.9% 49.5% -7.8% 25.4%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 27.2% 31.4% -12.9% 13.2%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.8% 18.6% -8.4% 6.5%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 65.2% 95.4% 29.4% 62.7%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.8% 0.4% -21.4% -8.3%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 40.3% 31.1% -18.3% 14.2%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 14.5% 18.0% -5.3% 8.7%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.8% -7.2% -6.7% -5.2%
      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 6.2% 13.6% -5.4% 4.5%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.9% 5.6% -8.8% -2.3%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 3.8% 12.9% 4.3% 7.0%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 5.2% 15.4% -5.5% 4.8%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.3% 14.8% -6.8% 5.7%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 8.6% 15.4% -6.0% 5.6%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.2% 8.7% -3.7% 1.6%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 1.0% 9.2% 0.9% 3.6%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 6.1% 1.1% -12.1% -2.1%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 11.1% 15.6% -16.1% 2.7%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 4.4% 13.4% -0.5% 5.8%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.7% -6.3% -6.5% -4.9%

     

    Radio Pacing Charts Q2

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.1% -3.9% 5.4% 0.2%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.4% -3.4% 11.5% 0.4%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 29.9% 22.3% 13.0% 23.3%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 11.7% 5.9% 13.0% 10.1%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -9.5% -12.3% -0.7% -8.1%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.1% -4.0% 5.0% 0.1%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.1% -3.6% 6.4% 0.4%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.5% -12.0% 4.3% -5.0%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -8.0% -6.4% 5.0% -4.1%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -14.1% -11.4% 1.8% -9.2%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 16.3% 12.9% 15.1% 14.8%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.7% -2.0% 7.1% -1.1%

       

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -6.0% -13.9% -1.9% -7.8%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -26.1% -33.7% -40.6% -32.4%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 16.8% -11.2% 3.8% 3.6%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -9.2% -9.9% -3.7% -8.0%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.2% -12.1% 11.6% -3.3%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.3% -11.4% 0.5% -6.1%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -8.4% -21.6% -8.7% -13.3%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -9.6% -28.2% -21.7% -19.7%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -31.3% -27.0% -19.2% -26.7%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.7% -2.5% 22.7% 2.7%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.1% -8.2% 6.7% -1.1%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -6.7% -8.0% -6.7% -7.1%

       

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.5% -6.4% 3.7% -1.8%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -9.2% -11.2% -1.3% -7.9%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 25.7% 10.5% 9.7% 16.5%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 4.9% 1.1% 8.2% 4.5%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -8.2% -12.2% 1.3% -7.2%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.3% -6.0% 4.0% -1.5%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -7.8% 3.0% -2.6%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.8% -13.2% 2.5% -6.0%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -13.8% -11.8% -1.2% -9.9%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -10.8% -8.6% 7.1% -5.8%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.9% 5.9% 12.5% 9.6%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -6.0% -3.5% 3.7% -2.6%