ShareBuilders Radio Forecast

 

L+N Radio
Q1 7.9%
Q2 -0.7%
Q3 -0.1%
Q4 10.2%
Jan Feb Mar Q1
Local -0.5% 7.2% 5.0% 3.8%
Natl 23.1% 28.6% -2.0% 18.0%
L+N 6.1% 13.9% 3.0% 7.9%
April May June Q2
Local -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% -0.2%
Natl -3.0% -4.0% 0.0% -2.5%
L+N -2.2% -0.9% 1.6% -0.7%

Radio Forecast Observations

 

Q1 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Local Q1 climbed 0.5 points week to week thanks to a 0.9-point uptick in March.

The growth occurred in the following categories: South, Midwest, both DMA groups, and the Urban and Female-oriented formats.

Forecast Updates

Our forecasts play it safe for March, anticipating a fall. If it doesn’t fall, we might be taking it up in the next week. Until then, our forecasts are:

  • -0.5% for January
  • +7.2% for February
  • +5.0% for March – flat to last week
  • +3.8% for the Quarter – flat to last week

Q1 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

The quarter’s pace jumped 0.9 points thanks to a 3.3-point pickup in March.

All categories we measure saw the improvements, save one, the Female-oriented format.

Forecast Updates

We did predict March will grow last week, but we may still be high on our forecast without as much political to drive the month, so we’ll lower it again:

  • +23.1% for January
  • +28.6% for February
  • -2.0% for March – down 2.0 points
  • +18.0% for the Quarter

Q1 Local + National

Our Q1 forecast combines to look a couple tenths of a point stronger than last week at +7.9%.

 

 

Q2 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q2 saw a nice 1.8-point pickup this week, with April up 1.4 points, May up 2.3, and June up 1.8.

All categories saw growth for the quarter, save the Midwest and News/Talk/Sports formats.

Forecast Updates

We’re seeing upside in April, but continued weakness in May. Therefore, continuing what we started last week, we’ll raise April’s forecast and lower May’s by the same amount:

  • -2.0% for April – up 2.0 points
  • +0.0% for May – down 2.0 points
  • +2.0% for June – flat
  • -0.2% for the Quarter – down 0.1 of a point

Q2 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

A big week for National Q2, picking up 6 points. Only the Northeast category fell.

April grew by 5.8 points, May by 7.3, and June by 4.7.

Forecast Updates

There’s not a lot of money booked yet for Q2, but it’s becoming apparent that May is softer than we’d like, perhaps because Memorial Day is early this year, on 5/25. The week of Memorial Day is historically a soft demand week, but in some years part of that week is May calendar, and part is June. But this year, the entire week is May, both broadcast and standard calendar. That’s a lot of weak days in the month of May, which could explain its softness versus the other months. Let us know if you have other theories!

Regardless of the reason for the May softness, we’re lowering it a point while holding April and June’s forecasts:

  • -3.0% for April
  • -4.0% for May – down 1 point from last week
  • +0.0% for June
  • -2.5% for the Quarter  – down 0.3 points

Q2 Local + National

In the end, our minor forecast changes don’t change our overall combined forecast of -0.7%.

.

 

 

Pricing In Uncertain Times

 

How do you price and plan for a pandemic? Well, you first need to decide what level of risk you’re comfortable with. Would you rather assume the worst about COVID-19 and its effect on advertising, and keep pricing targets lower? If you do that and you don’t end up with a lot of cancellations, you might end up far too tight. Or, vice versa: you assume that everything is going to be ok and the coronavirus’s effect on your revenue won’t be too strong. However, if things get bad, we’ve got another Q4 2008 on our hands, and you’re wide open.

We recommend somewhere in between. If you know you’re going to lose a Carnival Cruise Lines buy, for example, definitely account for that in your pricing. Don’t ignore what’s right in front of you. If you’re in between two numbers with no real clarity whether you should go high or low, maybe go with the lower end to be safe.

But don’t overdo it either. We don’t yet know how bad it will get, and some markets will be less affected than others. If the worse does happen, and we’re in another sharp recession, how you’re pricing now probably won’t really matter much: you’ll lose money regardless.

Most importantly: stay disciplined. Stay on top of the new information, make your regular calls, and publish new rate cards regularly. None of us knows what the future holds. The best we can do is be agile and respond quickly to new data. We’re here to help!

And remember: if you’re forced to work remotely, ShareBuilders and Efficio are accessible anywhere with an internet connection. If you have any problems accessing either, reach out to your consultant or our Help Desk for assistance.

Radio Pacing Charts Q1

      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.5% 7.2% 5.8% 4.2%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.7% 10.2% 3.0% 2.4%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.9% 9.0% 16.2% 7.6%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.6% 12.5% 10.2% 7.7%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.6% 2.6% 1.2% 1.5%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 1.1% 7.8% 7.4% 5.5%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -4.4% 5.5% 1.2% 0.7%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -7.1% -1.7% 2.0% -2.2%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.0% 1.3% 0.0% 3.5%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.9% 5.1% -10.3% -3.1%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.2% 11.4% 8.5% 6.2%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.1% -5.9% -1.1% -3.1%

     

     

      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 23.1% 28.6% -6.6% 14.5%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 2.7% 0.5% -22.5% -7.8%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 17.0% 21.0% 4.6% 14.3%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 14.4% 19.9% -6.7% 8.9%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 41.8% 49.5% -4.6% 28.0%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 27.1% 31.3% -5.5% 16.9%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 11.0% 19.7% -10.3% 6.7%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 65.2% 95.1% 18.4% 60.7%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.0% 0.4% -28.5% -11.1%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 39.9% 31.1% -11.5% 18.2%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 14.7% 18.5% -1.3% 10.7%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.9% -7.5% -1.7% -3.5%
      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 6.1% 13.9% 1.8% 7.3%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.4% 7.3% -5.4% -0.7%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 3.9% 12.9% 12.3% 9.8%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 5.1% 15.3% 3.8% 8.2%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.2% 14.8% -0.3% 8.2%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 8.5% 15.4% 3.2% 9.1%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.5% 9.6% -2.1% 2.4%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.9% 9.1% 3.6% 4.5%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 6.1% 0.9% -10.8% -1.7%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.5% 15.5% -10.8% 4.8%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 4.3% 14.2% 4.8% 7.9%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -6.4% -1.3% -3.2%

     

    Radio Pacing Charts Q2

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 8.5% 1.5% 9.5% 6.4%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.2% -0.8% 14.3% 3.4%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 34.9% 32.7% 21.7% 30.8%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 24.6% 11.7% 15.1% 17.6%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.3% -6.7% 4.2% -1.7%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 12.1% 3.9% 10.4% 8.8%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.3% -4.3% 7.2% 0.3%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.6% -9.2% 5.1% -2.4%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.8% -3.9% 14.1% 1.9%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -10.8% -11.6% -2.8% -9.0%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 20.9% 15.2% 15.3% 17.4%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 3.5% 3.4% 12.0% 5.8%

       

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 5.4% -6.3% 11.8% 2.7%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -10.5% -26.1% -34.3% -22.1%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 37.6% 3.7% 20.9% 21.0%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 9.2% 9.5% 19.7% 11.9%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.3% -14.2% 15.3% -3.0%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 11.2% -0.1% 21.4% 9.6%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -12.9% -23.2% -11.4% -16.2%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -15.1% -28.4% -16.7% -20.5%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -13.3% -14.9% -1.1% -10.9%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -12.0% -14.3% 13.8% -7.3%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 12.2% 2.7% 14.3% 9.5%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.7% 5.2% 11.3% 9.0%

       

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 7.8% -0.3% 10.0% 5.6%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.5% -6.5% 3.9% -2.2%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 35.7% 22.8% 21.5% 27.6%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 20.2% 11.1% 16.2% 16.1%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.5% -8.3% 5.9% -1.9%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 11.9% 2.9% 12.6% 9.0%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.8% -8.6% 3.1% -3.2%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.5% -10.6% 3.8% -3.5%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.5% -6.5% 10.8% -0.9%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -11.1% -12.4% 1.4% -8.6%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 18.3% 11.4% 15.0% 15.0%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 5.0% 3.8% 11.8% 6.5%