ShareBuilders Radio Forecast

 

L+N Radio
Q1 7.5%
Q2 -0.8%
Q3 -0.1%
Q4 10.2%
Jan Feb Mar Q1
Local -0.5% 6.6% 4.5% 3.3%
Natl 23.1% 27.7% 5.0% 16.8%
L+N 6.1% 13.2% 4.6% 7.5%
April May June Q2
Local -5.0% 3.0% 2.0% -0.2%
Natl -0.4% -13.6% 7.1% -3.3%
L+N -4.6% 2.0% 1.7% -0.8%

Radio Forecast Observations

 

Q1 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Local pace lost 0.4 points this week, with March losing 1.5 points.

Forecast Updates

February looks to be finishing up a few tenths of a point stronger, while March looks 0.5 points better, bringing our forecasts to:

  • -0.5% for January
  • +6.6% for February – up 0.6 points
  • +5.0% for March – up 0.5 points
  • +3.8% for the Quarter – up 0.5 points from last week

Q1 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

The quarter picked up 1.3 points this week thanks to late February adds that drove the month up 7.8 points, which has to be political. March, meanwhile, lost 2 points.

Forecast Updates

More political means another big increase for February, but today it looks like March will have a much tougher time of it (we have more Super Tuesday state customers than later primary ones, so less political for March 4th and beyond):

  • +23.1% for January
  • +27.7% for February – up 5.7 points
  • 0.0% for March – down 5.0 points
  • +16.8% for the Quarter – flat to last week

Q1 Local + National

Late adds for February and a small uptick in our March Local forecast take the combined number up 0.2 of a point to +7.7%.

 

 

Q2 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

 Local Q2 continues to inch slowly upward, adding 0.2 points this week.

April trended down a bit, but May and June grew.

Forecast Updates

We’re not very trusting of our data just yet, but Q1’s patterns tell us that April might be a bit higher, with May a little lower, so we’ll swap a pace point between each for today, and hold June:

  • -4.0% for April – up 1.0 point
  • +2.0% for May – down 1.0 point
  • +2.0% for June – flat
  • -0.3% for the Quarter – down 0.1 of a point

Q2 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Q2 continues to hover in the negative zone after dropping off a couple of weeks ago. Within the quarter, each month is all over the place.  May is far softer than the rest, and June  has grown significantly over the last couple of days.

Small dollars can lead to strange pacing patterns, and that’s probably what’s going on here this far out from the start of the quarter for such a late-breaking revenue category.

Forecast Updates

When so little money is booked for a quarter, we prefer to rely on prior months/quarters to set a pattern for forecasting the future, but Q1 was so funky with political in some of our markets that we don’t trust it to predict Q2. We’ll have to forecast Q2 on its own billing for now, which is minimal, so we’ll hold our prior forecasts until we get more money on the books:

  • -3.0% for April
  • -3.0% for May
  • 0.0% for June
  • -2.2% for the Quarter

Q2 Local + National

There is little change for the combined quarter, with our forecast up just 0.1 points at -0.7%.

 

 

Employee Spotlight

Holding Capacity Coordinator

 

Katie Kelly graduated from Bradley University with a degree in Radio and Television Communications in 2005, and she joined the ShareBuilders family shortly thereafter. Katie has worn many proverbial hats during her tenure with ShareBuilders, and currently serves as Holding Capacity Coordinator. She enjoys the challenge of creating and maintaining the television market models, and has been known to volubly declare victory when solving particularly complex problems.

Outside of work, Katie is a voracious reader, avid gardener, and lifelong penguin enthusiast. She lives in Central Illinois with her husband Jim and 2-year-old son Samuel. In a desperate attempt to pass her love of literature on to her son, Katie frequently quotes children’s books in casual conversation. ShareBuilders is proud to have Katie’s expertise and colorful personality on their team.

Radio Pacing Charts Q1

      Jan Feb Mar  Q1
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.5% 6.6% 4.9% 3.7%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.7% 10.4% -2.8% 0.6%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.9% 6.9% 17.7% 6.7%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.6% 12.0% 8.5% 6.9%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.6% 2.2% 2.1% 1.6%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 1.1% 7.3% 6.6% 5.0%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -4.4% 4.9% 0.2% 0.1%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -7.1% -1.8% 4.2% -1.6%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.0% 0.2% -0.9% 2.9%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.9% 4.4% -11.6% -3.6%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.2% 10.4% 8.0% 5.5%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.1% -6.1% -1.0% -3.2%

     

     

    Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 23.1% 27.7% -9.9% 13.6%
     
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 2.7% 0.6% -32.0% -10.9%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 17.0% 21.9% 3.8% 14.8%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 14.4% 17.6% -11.1% 7.0%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 41.8% 48.9% -4.6% 28.7%
     
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 27.1% 31.2% -7.8% 16.8%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 11.0% 16.2% -17.0% 3.6%
     
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 65.2% 92.6% 16.2% 60.2%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.0% -2.0% -33.1% -13.7%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 39.9% 31.1% -10.3% 19.5%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 14.7% 16.9% -6.6% 8.8%
     
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.9% -7.2% 0.5% -2.7%
      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 6.1% 13.2% 0.2% 6.7%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.4% 7.4% -12.4% -2.9%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 3.9% 11.7% 13.1% 9.2%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 5.1% 14.2% 0.9% 6.9%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.2% 14.3% 0.3% 8.4%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 8.5% 15.0% 1.9% 8.7%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.5% 8.1% -4.8% 1.1%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.9% 8.8% 5.4% 5.0%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 6.1% -0.6% -13.7% -3.1%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.5% 15.0% -11.1% 5.0%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 4.3% 12.9% 2.3% 6.7%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -6.4% -0.6% -3.0%

     

    Radio Pacing Charts Q2

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 6.5% -0.6% 7.9% 4.5%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.6% -3.7% 12.6% 2.3%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 11.1% 17.5% 12.6% 13.6%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 22.0% 5.6% 10.5% 13.1%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.3% -5.1% 5.0% -0.5%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.3% 1.7% 9.2% 7.0%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.9% -6.3% 4.5% -2.1%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.2% -6.9% 7.9% -0.2%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -8.3% -15.3% 9.4% -6.3%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -13.8% -14.3% -10.8% -13.2%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 15.4% 9.2% 10.6% 12.0%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 6.3% 3.3% 12.4% 7.0%

       

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.4% -13.6% 7.1% -3.3%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -23.9% -46.9% -37.8% -35.7%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 37.6% 8.7% 28.8% 25.3%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 5.2% -4.0% 19.2% 5.5%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -8.4% -16.8% 4.3% -8.6%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 7.0% -6.6% 14.3% 4.0%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -22.1% -30.8% -10.2% -22.3%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -22.9% -36.4% -28.9% -29.5%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -45.9% -48.8% -4.4% -40.1%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -21.3% -12.1% 3.0% -12.2%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 11.0% -0.2% 16.5% 8.7%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 20.7% 15.0% 26.7% 20.4%

       

      Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 4.9% -3.5% 7.8% 2.8%
       
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.1% -13.6% 1.5% -6.4%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 18.7% 14.8% 17.9% 17.2%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 17.0% 3.0% 12.5% 11.0%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.7% -7.4% 4.9% -1.9%
       
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 9.5% -0.2% 10.1% 6.4%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -6.8% -12.0% 1.4% -6.5%
       
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.5% -8.8% 5.7% -2.0%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -18.5% -25.2% 6.7% -15.1%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -15.7% -13.7% -7.6% -12.9%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 14.1% 6.4% 12.2% 11.0%
       
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 9.0% 5.3% 14.8% 9.4%