ShareBuilders Radio Forecast

 

L+N Radio
Q1 7.5%
Q2 -0.8%
Q3 -0.1%
Q4 10.2%
Jan Feb Mar Q1
Local -0.4% 6.0% 4.5% 3.3%
Natl 23.2% 22.0% 5.0% 16.8%
L+N 6.1% 11.4% 4.6% 7.5%
April May June Q2
Local -5.0% 3.0% 2.0% -0.2%
Natl 7.7% -17.8% -4.9% -3.1%
L+N -4.6% 2.0% 1.7% -0.8%

Radio Forecast Observations

 

Q1 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Local had a good week, adding half a point, thanks to February’s 1.1-point growth and March’s smaller 0.1-point add.

The February improvements were seen in most categories, though some declines were found in the Northeast and smaller markets.

Forecast Updates

February’s improvement tells us to raise our forecast a point, and we’ll add half a point to our March outlook as well, bringing us to:

  • -0.4% for January
  • +6.0% for February
  • +4.5% for March
  • +3.3% for the Quarter – up 0.5 points from last week

Q1 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

While still very strong, Q1 pacing on the National side fell 0.7 points this week, but it was all due to March’s 4.5-point decline, as February climbed by 2.8, likely due to late political in markets with February or March primaries.

All categories saw the February growth except for the South.

Forecast Updates

More late political means a bigger February, but March is looking softer for now:

  • +23.2% for January
  • +22.0% for February – up 6.5 points
  • +5.0% for March – down 3.5 points
  • +16.8% for the Quarter – up 0.3 points from last week

Q1 Local + National

The quarter looks a little stronger with more political adds, now up 0.4 points to +7.5% total.

 

 

Q2 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

Local Q2 pace is trending upwards, though we suspect it will fall throughout the month of March if the Q1 patterns are any indication.

Forecast Updates

Current pacing tells us to expect stronger forecasts than our numbers below, but we’re not yet confident in the data, so we’ll play it safe for today:

  • -0.5% for April
  • +3.0% for May
  • +2.0% for June
  • -0.2% for the Quarter

Q2 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

A big drop in Q2 pace a few weeks ago might appear to be alarming, but National business books so late these days that it is quite likely to climb again. Q1 didn’t peak until early December, though political might distort some of our data and make it difficult to use the quarter to predict Q2. Regardless, all 3 months see the Q2 declines, but the booked revenue is very small right now.

Forecast Updates

Pacing is definitely not reliable this early out, and Q1 patterns aren’t helpful given the heavy primary political spending in some markets, that might not be there so significantly in Q2, though we don’t know that for sure. Given all of that, we’ll stick with the fairly conservative numbers for now:

  • -3.0% for January
  • -3.0% for February
  • +0.0% for March
  • -2.3% for the Quarter 

Q2 Local + National

We’re in a fairly strong Q1 right now overall, mostly led by political, which not every station is receiving. It makes it hard to forecast the next quarter, so we’ll stick with conservative estimates and hope to increase them as we get into the quarter. Our combined forecast is now -0.8% for the quarter.

 

 

Radio Pacing Charts Q1

      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.4% 6.7% 6.4% 4.1%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.7% 9.2% -1.2% 1.0%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.9% 5.4% 15.7% 5.2%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.7% 11.2% 15.2% 8.5%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.6% 3.4% 1.3% 1.8%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 1.1% 7.4% 8.8% 5.6%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -4.2% 4.9% 0.2% 0.3%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -7.1% -1.2% 4.1% -1.6%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.0% -0.9% 3.9% 4.0%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.6% 5.2% -14.5% -3.8%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.2% 10.0% 10.7% 6.0%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.1% -5.0% -0.5% -2.7%

     

      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 23.2% 19.9% -7.9% 12.3%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 2.7% -12.1% -33.3% -15.1%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 17.0% 22.1% 3.4% 14.9%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 14.4% 14.8% -6.2% 8.1%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 41.8% 36.0% -3.2% 26.0%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 27.1% 22.9% -4.0% 15.9%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 11.0% 10.2% -20.0% 1.1%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 65.2% 75.7% 16.3% 55.4%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.0% -2.5% -33.4% -13.5%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 40.0% 21.8% -11.6% 17.1%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 14.7% 13.3% -3.3% 8.9%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.9% -7.0% 1.6% -2.4%
      Jan Feb Mar Q1
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 6.1% 10.8% 1.9% 6.6%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.4% 2.5% -11.9% -3.9%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 3.9% 10.6% 11.4% 8.3%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 5.2% 12.6% 6.9% 8.4%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.2% 12.0% 0.1% 7.8%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 8.5% 12.4% 4.6% 8.8%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.4% 6.4% -5.7% 0.5%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.9% 7.5% 5.3% 4.5%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 6.1% -1.4% -11.2% -2.3%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.8% 12.0% -13.4% 4.0%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 4.3% 11.2% 5.3% 7.1%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -5.7% 0.1% -2.6%

    Radio Pacing Charts Q2

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 7.3% -2.4% 7.3% 4.3%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 4.0% -2.0% 13.4% 4.4%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 15.2% 13.5% 17.0% 15.1%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 29.1% 17.0% 24.3% 24.6%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.1% -10.4% -0.6% -4.8%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.7% -1.0% 6.8% 6.2%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.7% -4.9% 8.3% 0.2%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.2% -8.0% 4.2% -2.0%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -6.5% -16.4% 8.8% -6.3%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -15.5% -14.0% -6.7% -12.7%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 21.3% 16.4% 20.4% 19.5%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 7.4% 0.9% 12.3% 6.6%
        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 7.7% -17.8% -4.9% -3.1%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -18.1% -26.5% -14.8% -20.1%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 66.2% 10.4% 5.9% 29.3%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.3% -9.8% 8.0% 4.5%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -28.6% -16.4% -14.4%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 18.4% -14.7% -1.6% 4.9%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -18.8% -22.0% -9.7% -17.5%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -7.7% -38.8% -28.2% -25.4%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -54.1% -71.2% -28.7% -57.0%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -25.6% -24.9% -16.4% -23.0%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 20.7% -1.4% 5.5% 9.4%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 26.5% 19.6% 31.5% 25.6%

       

        Apr May Jun Q2
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 7.4% -5.4% 5.0% 2.8%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -0.7% -7.1% 8.0% -0.7%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 28.0% 12.5% 12.3% 19.6%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 23.6% 10.0% 20.3% 19.1%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -2.9% -13.1% -2.7% -6.2%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 12.3% -3.4% 5.4% 5.9%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -4.4% -8.8% 4.3% -3.6%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.5% -9.8% 2.6% -3.2%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -20.1% -35.8% 0.1% -21.4%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -17.9% -16.9% -9.1% -15.3%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 21.1% 10.9% 15.7% 16.4%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.6% 3.6% 15.0% 9.5%