ShareBuilders Radio Forecast

 

L+N Radio
Q1 -5.0%
Q2 -1.1%
Q3 -0.5%
Q4 -7.5%
L+N Radio
Q1 1.9%
Q2 -4.7%
Q3 -0.1%
Q4 10.2%
Oct Nov Dec Q4
Local -7.1% -4.5% -1.5% -4.7%
Natl -26.7% -13.8% 8.0% -12.9%
L+N -14.9% -8.0% 1.7% -7.5%
Jan Feb Mar Q1
Local 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.6%
Natl 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.1%
L+N 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.9%

Radio Forecast Observations

 

Q4 Local

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

The quarter picked up half a point of pace this week, though December lost 0.2. The quarter’s gain came from a late one-point pickup in November, which might still change a bit as we finalize the month. All categories saw the December decline.
Forecast Updates
Our -1.5% forecast for December is quite safe, and it might be stronger, but we’ll hold today:
  • -7.1% for October
  • -4.5% for November
  • -1.5% for December
  • -4.7% for the Quarter

Q4 National

Week-to-Week Pacing Changes

National added 0.3 points this week, but again, this was due to November jumping 1.7 points.

December lost 0.9 points, though some categories saw growth, particularly the West and Midwest.

 

Forecast Updates

Though billing updates this week that catch up missed data from the holiday might prove us wrong, today December looks 2 points weaker, though still quite strong:

  • -26.7% for October
  • -13.8% for November
  • +8% for December
  • -12.9% for the Quarter

Q4 Local + National

November improvements take our combined quarterly forecast up 0.7 points to -7.5%.

Q1 Local + National

We’ve avoided talking much about Q1 2020, mostly because the data we depend on for forecasting isn’t very reliable with so little money booked – just as any single station shouldn’t trust their pacing right now, we don’t trust our numbers either. It’s likely that many of our stations aren’t even giving us 2020 pace yet, so we don’t have a great sample to forecast from, and of those that do give us pacing the numbers are quite small.

Our stations are pacing quite strongly right now, which might suggest the combined Local+National finish might be stronger than our current forecast of +1.9%. But that’s a big number, and we want to have more data in before we move upwards.

 

Employee Spotlight

Mark Bretsch, Director of Consulting

 

Mark Bretsch is Director of Consulting and Senior Consultant for ShareBuilders. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Advertising from the University of Illinois and joined the ShareBuilders family in 2006. Prior to his tenure with ShareBuilders, Mark had a long career in radio sales and management. He got his start in radio by winning a contest on a Chicago radio station that allowed him to be an on-air DJ for an hour. Though Mark claims that performance was awful, radio got its hooks into him and never let go. (This biographer will be reserving judgment on the quality of that fated broadcast until the tapes are produced.)

 Before becoming an employee, Mark was a ShareBuilders client on three separate occasions. Most notably, he was on the management team of the very first ShareBuilders radio station. When the opportunity arose to bring Mark into the ShareBuilders fold, he brought a unique perspective that has proven invaluable. He’s also got some great stories about ShareBuilders in the age of dial-up internet.

 True to his rock-n-roll radio roots, Mark is a huge music fan. He spends much of his free time traveling and seeing live shows. One of his proudest achievements is that (at least some of) his musical tastes have rubbed off on his teenage daughter Genevieve. We’re proud to have Mark and his impressive radio pedigree on our team!

Radio Pacing Charts Q4

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -7.1% -4.5% 2.5% -3.8%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -11.5% -9.1% -8.6% -10.1%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -1.8% -3.1% -8.6% -4.0%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -4.0% -1.4% 5.9% -0.7%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -9.6% -5.9% 6.3% -4.0%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.7% -2.7% 4.8% -1.9%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -10.9% -9.6% -5.1% -9.1%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -3.8% -6.5% 3.1% -3.0%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 2.2% -0.5% -10.1% -2.2%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -17.0% -12.0% -3.9% -11.5%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.6% -4.4% 2.0% -3.5%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 8.8% -5.0% -1.8% 0.6%

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -26.7% -13.8% 10.7% -14.5%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -39.8% -29.1% 5.7% -28.4%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -14.5% -21.0% -8.5% -15.7%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -28.5% -17.4% 12.8% -16.7%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -24.3% -0.6% 18.0% -6.8%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -22.9% -8.8% 13.4% -10.0%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -37.4% -28.6% -1.2% -28.5%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -31.8% 9.5% 38.3% -7.6%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 12.5% 25.0% 22.9% 19.9%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -18.7% -0.3% 26.2% -1.6%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -23.0% -18.9% 6.9% -16.1%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 9.3% -2.6% -0.9% 1.7%

     

      Oct Nov Dec Q4
    All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -14.9% -8.0% 5.1% -7.8%
             
    Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -22.9% -17.2% -3.7% -17.3%
    Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -6.6% -9.8% -8.6% -8.3%
    South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -15.5% -8.6% 8.5% -7.8%
    West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -14.7% -4.3% 9.4% -4.9%
             
    Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -12.6% -5.0% 7.7% -4.9%
    Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -21.1% -16.7% -4.0% -16.0%
             
    Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -9.5% -4.1% 6.8% -3.8%
    Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 5.6% 8.2% 0.2% 5.1%
    Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -17.7% -7.7% 5.5% -7.9%
    Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -13.9% -11.2% 4.0% -9.2%
             
    All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 8.9% -4.2% -1.5% 0.9%

    Radio Pacing Charts Q1

        Jan Feb Mar Q1
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 14.4% 17.6% 26.9% 18.8%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 22.5% 20.8% 19.4% 21.1%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 35.4% -30.5% 83.2% 21.0%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 32.1% 62.7% 73.6% 51.7%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 5.3% 10.6% 14.3% 9.6%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 17.1% 23.6% 26.7% 21.5%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 10.5% 10.5% 27.2% 15.1%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 0.3% 8.6% 8.8% 5.3%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 17.9% 17.3% 42.3% 23.0%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 43.2% 16.1% 29.3% 30.8%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 18.8% 37.3% 67.9% 36.3%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 1.8% 2.1% 7.2% 3.4%
        Jan Feb Mar Q1
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 3.7% -2.4% 12.7% 3.9%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 120.5% 67.0% 78.4% 91.9%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -5.0% 3.4% 94.7% 7.8%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 39.2% 28.3% 16.6% 30.7%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -15.4% -19.5% -4.6% -14.3%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -12.9% -24.3% -14.3% -16.6%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 43.7% 43.1% 45.1% 43.9%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 132.0% 170.4% 292.1% 164.4%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -44.9% -51.8% -62.9% -51.4%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace -33.9% -28.6% -23.4% -29.7%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 16.7% 6.1% 32.7% 16.7%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 55.2% -8.5% 50.3% 27.5%

       

        Jan Feb Mar Q1
      All SB Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 12.6% 14.7% 25.1% 16.5%
               
      Midwest Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 37.0% 27.3% 29.5% 31.9%
      Northeast Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 24.4% -23.4% 86.3% 17.7%
      South Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 33.5% 56.3% 63.6% 47.8%
      West Radio Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 2.2% 6.7% 12.3% 6.5%
               
      Radio Market Rank 1→20 Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 11.1% 15.2% 21.6% 15.0%
      Radio Market Rank 21+ Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 14.9% 14.0% 29.5% 18.7%
               
      Radio News/Talk/Sports Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 5.0% 11.7% 12.2% 9.1%
      Radio Rock – Adult/Male Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 3.7% -0.6% 13.8% 4.8%
      Radio Rock – Female Oriented Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 21.6% 4.6% 16.1% 14.8%
      Radio Urban Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 18.2% 29.9% 60.4% 31.4%
               
      All SB TV Stations Radio Executive Summary Pace 11.3% -0.6% 15.6% 8.4%